If Serbia continues along the European path, adheres to the rules and fulfils the conditions set by the European Union (EU), this will endanger the current government, said Slobodan Zečević, Director of the Institute for European Studies.
In an interview for FoNet’s foreign policy series Agreman, Zečević warned that there is a real possibility of funds from European sources being withheld if Serbia fails to meet specific conditions, primarily related to the judiciary.
“By the end of 2026, Serbia is expected to receive €400 million from the EU Growth Plan, which is significantly more than the basic funds of around €200 million per year. That €400 million is now very seriously conditional,” Zečević warned.
He emphasised that if the European Commission (EC) assesses that Serbia is not meeting the conditions, the risk is not only that it will fail to receive the €400 million this year, but that it may “never receive it again”.
He recalled that Serbia received half of the planned funds in January.
“We have not fulfilled our obligations regarding the establishment of REM; the EC is not satisfied with the media laws, and it is particularly dissatisfied when it comes to the judiciary and the so-called Mrdić laws,” he said.
Zečević believes that if Serbia does not meet its obligations on all points by the end of the year, the EC could say: “We will not give you anything.”
Asked to assess whether the authorities take this warning seriously and whether judicial laws will be more important to them than funds from the Growth Plan, he recalled that the EC had asked the authorities to suspend those laws pending an assessment by the Venice Commission, which was refused.
“That issue is deeply political. What the EU insists on could in fact threaten the government, and that is why they are now weighing things up – they do not want to abandon the European path, as that would be highly problematic for any government, including ours, but at the same time they understand that if they implement everything that is required, their hold on power will be shaken,” he stressed.
He noted that there is another important aspect – the requirement to align Serbia’s foreign policy with the EU, which means introducing sanctions against the Russian Federation.
“That is one of the foundations on which the government has functioned. We had a gas agreement with Russia under which the price was more than twice as low as for other countries to which Russia sold gas. This attracted foreign investors, who benefited from low electricity and gas prices,” he explained.
He believes that fulfilling all obligations could essentially undermine the concept on which the current government has built Serbia’s development.
“Honestly, I do not know what their position will be in the future, because it is becoming increasingly difficult to reconcile these two things, even though they are still trying to do so,” Zečević said.
He considers that pressures on Serbia are increasing from both sides.
“The Russians are dissatisfied that we are not Belarus, and Europe is dissatisfied that we are not Montenegro – that we have not introduced sanctions against Russia and accepted everything that is required of us,” he assessed.
However, he added that the EU is also calculating.
“What is becoming an increasing problem for the EU? They want to integrate this part of Europe into their framework, and they will not be able to tolerate Serbia’s current status for much longer,” he added.
Within the EU, Zečević notes, there is scepticism towards the Vučić-Rama proposal that Serbia and Albania should give up full membership in exchange for access to the common market and the Schengen Area.
“The assessment within the EU is that this would allow all the benefits to be obtained without the obligation to align with EU foreign policy, while enabling the country to continue avoiding obligations related to the internal organisation of the state, such as media freedom and judicial independence,” he said.
European Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos said on Tuesday that the EC had invited EU member states to present their proposals for a new enlargement model, noting that a proposal to simplify the entire process had been rejected.
According to him, Montenegro will likely be admitted to the EU with full voting rights, including the right of veto.
One idea, he notes, is to make accession easier for candidates, but also to make it easier to withdraw funds if they do not respect fundamental rules.
“You cannot admit someone and then say: ‘You are our member, but you have no voting rights,’” Zečević stressed.
The attitude towards Vučić and his government, the FoNet interlocutor points out, is also viewed through the prism of Kosovo, as the president is “essentially cooperative” on that issue.
“He does not create problems; he declaratively fights for Kosovo within Serbia, but does not take hasty steps that would endanger the process of consolidating Pristina’s institutions. From that perspective, the EU does not view the Serbian government all that negatively,” he assessed.
He explains that the EU fears that someone more radical in power could create problems in Kosovo, for example, by undertaking military intervention.
“For this cooperativeness, the government receives a certain degree of tolerance. Nor does the EU radically cut relations with Serbia,” Zečević believes.
Asked how much longer the government can continue balancing, he replied that a game of nerves is underway, which could last until the EU grows tired and says: “Stop! We will no longer tolerate this; we are freezing accession negotiations and will no longer consider your case until everything changes radically.”
That would be a serious blow to Serbia, Zečević warns, adding that the essential question is whether Serbia and its government want the system that exists in the EU, which implies that those in power can be replaced.
Commenting on a statement by the leader of the German AfD party, Alice Weidel, who said that it is not in Serbia’s interest to join the EU at this moment, he said that it is unclear what their current position is regarding Germany’s membership in the EU.
He recalled that French right-wing politicians from the National Rally have “given up” on France leaving the EU, as this is extremely unpopular among that country’s citizens.
“But when someone who is an EU member tells us: ‘Why would you join?’, I would ask them: ‘Why don’t you leave?’ Let us see whether AfD, if it comes to power, will tell Germans – we are going to leave the EU,” Slobodan Zečević, Director of the Institute for European Studies, said in an interview for FoNet.
(Insajder, 26.03.2026)