Petroleum Industry of Serbia (NIS) submitted a request to OFAC on 9 April for a new special licence that would allow it to continue its operational activities without disruption after 17 April, when the previous licence issued on 20 March expires.
“As far as I understand, it will once again be extended for a month. Let’s first wait for confirmation from OFAC,” said Jasna Petrović Stojanović, editor of the economics section of the daily newspaper Politika.
She stressed that such a practice represents a serious problem.
“Extending it month by month is a strain – for the Oil Industry of Serbia, for Serbia in general, and for drivers. NIS cannot plan any long-term operations, nor can it purchase oil on a long-term basis. All of this increases costs and complicates business,” Petrović Stojanović noted.
She added that a longer extension would be a more favourable solution.
“It would be ideal if we could get an extension like Lukoil has, until the end of October, but of course everything depends on OFAC,” she pointed out.
Negotiations with MOL and the 22 May deadline
Jelica Putniković, editor of the Energija Balkana portal, said she hopes that this time OFAC will show consideration for Serbia, given that NIS’s licence for talks regarding potential changes in the company’s ownership structure expires on 22 May.
“If NIS already has a licence until 22 May, then it would be reasonable to grant a two-month extension to allow those negotiations with MOL to be completed, as we have already heard from both the Hungarian and Serbian sides that most of it has been agreed and only some details remain to be finalised,” Putniković said.
However, even a potential signing would not mean a final resolution.
“Even if such an agreement is signed, it is by no means definitive. It is only one step towards a final agreement. We still have to see whether ADNOC, which has been less visible over the past two months due to developments in the Middle East, remains interested in the whole process, and whether we will reach a final outcome or continue extending the arrangement with OFAC,” Petrović Stojanović emphasised.
Geopolitics and the interests of major powers
They also note that the outcome does not depend solely on economic factors.
“The Americans are in no rush, unlike us, to bring this matter to a close,” Putniković said, adding that the public has no insight into the key conditions: “Neither citizens nor businesses have received any explanation – in essence, we depend on the will of the Americans.”
Regarding negotiations with MOL, Finance Minister Siniša Mali has announced that a delegation from the Hungarian company will visit Serbia.
“As far as relations between Serbia and Hungary – that is, MOL and NIS – are concerned, what our side should insist on in negotiations is that the refinery in Pančevo continues to operate. I believe the best way to ensure that is not to build a product pipeline between Hungary and Serbia, because if it is built, MOL could eventually shut down the refinery, which would be detrimental for Serbia,” Putniković added.
Will political change in Hungary affect the outcome?
Opinions are divided on how a change of government in Hungary might influence the future of NIS.
“On the first day after Orbán lost the election, there were claims that the whole process would be halted – not because MOL no longer wants to acquire NIS, but because the Russians, who have publicly described Hungary as a hostile country, no longer wish to negotiate or allow Hungary to become the new owner of NIS. On the other hand, the election winner Péter Magyar said that nothing would change in that respect and that he would not close the door to Russia, despite pressure from Brussels and the European Union to completely sever ties with Russian energy. So we will have to wait and see,” Petrović Stojanović explained.
She noted that, from MOL’s perspective, acquiring NIS would be highly beneficial.
“It would gain a large market and a refinery. What concerns me, if MOL does acquire NIS, is that we may lose what NIS currently provides – full market coverage even in the most difficult circumstances, and wholesale prices that are significantly lower than those offered by any other company,” she added.
Rising oil prices and market implications
Oil prices have been rising in recent days and are approaching the $100 per barrel mark. However, market movements remain unpredictable.
“These have been ongoing speculations since 28 February, when the conflict in the Middle East began. There were predictions of $150 or even $200 per barrel, but prices have not exceeded $120. They are somewhat higher today, but traders say they no longer react to every move by Trump. When rises are expected, prices sometimes remain stable or even fall,” Petrović Stojanović explained.
She emphasised that the most important priority is ensuring stable supply.
“What matters most for us is that we have sufficient fuel and that the state has further reduced excise duties, which some now criticise, but I believe it is the right measure at this moment, because diesel would otherwise cost 225 dinars,” she added.
Despite the crisis, Putniković believes there is no risk of shortages.
“We will certainly be able to purchase oil even if the conflict in Iran continues. If there is a shortage of that share of crude oil on the global market, alternative supplies will be sourced and contracted. What matters is that NIS has a licence to operate and can import crude oil, because that is still far cheaper than buying finished petroleum products,” she said.
She also pointed out that Serbia has reserves for two to three months, which should provide sufficient time for the conflict to end and for the market to stabilise to some extent.
“We will see whether Zelensky will keep his promise to reopen the Druzhba pipeline by the end of April, which would significantly improve oil supply,” Petrović Stojanović concluded.
(Telegraf.rs, 17.04.2026)