The next elections in Serbia will take place under altered circumstances, so at the moment, it is almost impossible to establish with certainty which of the political actors will cross the 3% electoral threshold to win a seat in the Parliament, with the exception of the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) and the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS).
“Depending on the turnout, the new threshold of 3% could mean winning the vote of 100,000 voters. This is not an easy challenge for a large number of political parties and organizations in Serbia,” Vladimir Pejić, Director of the public opinion research agency Faktor Plus told Danas daily.
Many election participants have the chance to cross the threshold, but, as Vladimir Pejic says, “some will succeed and some will not”; the reason why an accurate prediction of the election results is not possible lies in the fact that researchers have difficulty in getting accurate data when the numbers are relatively low.
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“Maybe someone will drop from 3.1 to 2.8% of voter support during the election campaign and these are very small numbers to be able to predict with certainty. I must point out that many parties are at around 3%, although there is still uncertainty as to whether they will pass the threshold or be a few thousand votes short, which would prevent them from winning seats in the Parliament. It is clear that, due to the announced boycott of most of the opposition and the lower threshold, the appetites of many participants are growing,” says Vladimir Pejić.
Pejic believes that Pokret Slobodnih Građana-PSG (Free Citizens’ Movement), led by Sergej Trifunović, has a great chance of crossing the electoral threshold, but also that this political organisation faces great challenges such as motivating its potential electorate to go vote in order to succeed, despite the fact that the majority of the opposition block favours the boycott.
“As a researcher, I expect PSG to pass the threshold, but, I repeat, it will all depend on whether they will be able to convince voters to go to the polls. According to our research, the Serbian Radical Party is, for example, currently at an all-time low, but has a more stable electorate, so it still has a chance. Aleksandar Sapic also has a great chance of surpassing the 3%, along with the organisation called Metla, of which the Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) is a member. The United Democratic Party of Serbia, led by Nenad Canak and former PSG officials, Boris Tadic’s SDS, the Democratic Party and LDP are unlikely to cross the threshold. Based on the current numbers, all of them have below 3% of the electoral support and therefore probably won’t win any seats in the Parliament,” concludes Pejic.
This post is also available in: Italiano