When will the epidemic in Serbia peak?

The peak of the coronavirus epidemic could occur in Serbia in 10 days, at the earliest, or around 12 April at the latest, during Catholic Easter, when an influx of Serbian workers from abroad is expected, experts say.

However, it is difficult to say on which day the epidemic will peak because a lot of effort has been invested into slowing down the spread of the virus by introducing a state of emergency and curfew. The first case of COVID-19 in Serbia was recorded on 6 March.

Dr Zarko Rankovic, an infectious diseases specialist and a chief coordinator for the implementation of measures to combat the coronavirus epidemic in Niš, says that “no-one can say at this time if the peak will occur on the weekend or any other day”.

Epidemiologist Predrag Kon, head of the infectious diseases unit at the Institute of Public Health in Belgrade, says that a series of interventionist measures and a state of emergency have been introduced to slow down the spread of the virus.

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“Easter will fall on the sixth week of the epidemic. It is, therefore, possible that we will record the highest number of infected people then. We’ll see how the change of season and temperatures will affect the entire situation. We are at the end of the second week of the epidemic and we have done everything we can to slow down the spread of the virus. No-one can say for sure for how long is the number of infected people going to rise and how many people will be infected. I believe that all the measures introduced so far by the Serbian Government will produce results,” Mr Kon added.

The natural course of the epidemic

Dr Tatjana Radosavljevic, pulmonologist, says that every epidemic, including this one, follows its own course.

“Looking at the Chinese experience, we expect the peak to happen in ten days. And it has nothing to do with Easter or other holidays, but with the natural course of the epidemic. The so-called horizontal spread of the virus among the local population has started and if we can maintain the current or slightly higher growth rate, with these measures we will not cause the explosion of COVID-19 like in Italy. Personal responsibility of each of us is important, as well as listening to the recommendations of the experts,” she concluded.

(Sputnik News, 19.03.2020)


This post is also available in: Italiano

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