Will fuel in Serbia cost as much as it did a few years ago when a litre of diesel was sold for almost 170 dinars? These days, this problem is increasingly felt among drivers in Serbia, and the reason is the unstoppable growth of crude oil prices on the global market, which has reached its peak in the last year.
A global price of a barrel stands at 60 U.S. dollars. It was 40 dollars five months ago and 20 dollars a year ago. In the past seven days, the price has jumped 10 percent and the recovery of the global economy and the announcement of a new subsidy package in America could further stimulate demand and price, analysts say.
Swiss investment bank UBS predicts that the global crude oil price will reach $63 per barrel by the second half of this year and will continue to rise to $65 until the first quarter of 2022, while Goldman Sachs estimates that North Sea oil will reach a price of $65 by July this year.
This global trend will undoubtedly affect the price of fuel in Serbia. A retail price of a litre of petrol in Serbia has already gone up one dinar more than a week ago, and oil companies say that the world market may now further increase the price which could lead to a significant increase in fuel prices in Serbia, i.e. more than a dinar or two per litre.
According to one oil company in Serbia, the fuel prices in Serbia will go up in 6 to 8 weeks, i.e. at the end of March.
“Two-thirds of crude oil in Serbia comes from import. We have already increased the prices because the price of oil in the world has been going up for some time and we expect another price increase within two months at the latest. Given how the price of a barrel fluctuates, the increase in fuel prices in Serbia could amount to several dinars per litre, but it all depends on further developments on the global scene. It is certain that stocks are decreasing and demand is growing, and this together means a higher price of fuel,” the oil company says.
Nebojsa Atanackovic, co-owner of an oil company, says that the final retail price of fuel depends a lot on the price of crude oil.
“One should make a long-term forecast of price movements only when the pandemic passes, when the economy and traffic stabilize, and when life returns almost to normal,” Atanackovic says.
In Serbia, a decision was recently made to increase fuel excise by 1.3%, which could very quickly increase the price of a litre of fuel by about the same amount. Excise duty on petrol is about 58 dinars per litre, on Eurodiesel about 60 dinars and on gas 45 dinars per kilogramme.
A litre of unleaded petrol sold at Serbian petrol stations costs about 137 dinars, and a litre of Eurodiesel about 145 dinars.
This post is also available in: Italiano