Montenegro will need the longest period for economic recovery, Serbia the shortest. This will be the case even if there is a significant recovery of the tourist economy this year, warns the World Bank (WB) publication “Global Economic Perspectives”.
The World Bank estimated that the Montenegrin economy recorded a real decline of 14.9% in 2020 and could record a growth of 6.1% this year and 3.9% in 2022. Due to the decline in GDP last year, it now has a lower base and should have 20% growth to reach the nominal figure from 2019. According to the growth projections of the World Bank report, this could happen only in 2025.
According to the World Bank’s projections, Serbia will have the fastest recovery, which economy recorded a 2% decline last year, while in 2021, growth of 3.1% is expected, which would bring the GDP to the level of 2019 this year.
Croatia’s economy, which is also heavily dependent on tourism like Montenegro’s, fell 8.6% last year, the report said. The World Bank expects its economy to grow 5.4% this year and 4.2% next year, which would bring it back to the 2019 level.
The GDP of Bosnia and Herzegovina fell by 4% last year, while, according to the projections of the WB, its real growth this year would be 2.8% and 3.5% next year. According to these projections, the economy of Albania, which had a decline of 6.7% last year, would recover in two years, because it is expected to grow by 5.1% this year and 4.4% next year.
By 2023, North Macedonia’s GDP level could be restored to its pre-crisis level, because it had a 5.1% decline last year, while it is expected to grow by 3.6 this year and 3.5% next year.
Kosovo will need three years for a nominal recovery, because last year there was a decline in the economy of 8.8%, while this year it should grow by 3.7% and next year by 4.9%.
The World Bank points out that those countries whose economies depend largely on services and tourism, as well as those that have strong trade or financial ties with the Eurozone, are the hardest hit by the pandemic, while economies based on production and agriculture will be less affected and recover more quickly.
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