Although very well-known and widely used across the world, the prediction platform Polymarket is set to “enter” the lives of citizens in Serbia much more with the calling of snap parliamentary elections.
The platform has opened up the possibility of wagering money on the question – “Who will be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?” The current state of play early this morning shows that this market gives Vučić a 56% probability of returning to Nemanjina 11, and the top candidate on the Student List, Professor Ilija Srdanović, 42%.
However, although at first glance the figures look like an election poll, these are not public opinion survey results nor the percentage of citizens supporting a given candidate.
It is necessary to understand that this concerns a question regarding the future Prime Minister, rather than the winning list. And, in particular, these percentages do not reflect the views of the entire population, so they cannot be viewed directly as a forecast of the results of the parliamentary elections on 25th October.
What is Polymarket? Polymarket is one of the world’s best-known event prediction platforms. However, it is important to know that Polymarket combines elements of betting and the stock exchange. Just like in betting, participants wager on a certain outcome, but contract prices are traded similarly to a stock exchange. And that is how it works: it does not ask people what they think, but rather enables them to invest money based on their own assessment. Users invest in a specific outcome, whether it concerns politics, sport or any other topic.
The platform features numerous questions, such as current ones like – whether the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again, whether Bitcoin will rise or fall, whether Russia and Ukraine will agree to a ceasefire, or… who will be the next Prime Minister of Serbia.
Users invest money in Yes or No options, or in proposed candidates, and so on. They do this by purchasing so-called contracts. If the event they wagered money on comes true, their contract will be worth a dollar. If they are wrong, it is worth zero, meaning they lose their money. It is also often interpreted that the price of a contract and the probability of a certain outcome coincide.
How much they will earn depends on how many contracts they buy and at what price. In the case of our elections, if they buy one at the price of 56 cents that Vučić will become Prime Minister, and if that comes true, they will receive a dollar. In other words, they will make a profit of 44 cents (before fees). If Vučić does not become Prime Minister, they lose everything.
However, that does not mean that 56% of people believe Vučić will be Prime Minister.
What is important to bear in mind is that contracts can also be sold before the final result, so even if someone perhaps believes in a victory for Vučić or Srdanović, they do not have to wait for the final outcome to make a profit. Also, the amount of money invested does not in itself determine the probability that a candidate will become Prime Minister.
Similarity to the stock exchange
Just as share prices on the stock exchange are formed based on supply and demand and participants’ expectations about a company’s future, a similar principle applies on Polymarket. Everything depends on the information available to the user and what they acquire over time.
Likewise, a large purchase or a large sale of contracts can “shake” the market, especially if the trading volume up to that point has not been high. This can significantly shift the price, or rather the probability, of a candidate upwards or downwards.
The price of Srdanović’s contract at around 42 cents does not mean that 42 per cent of the total money has been wagered on him. In practice, the price of a contract is often interpreted as the market-assessed probability of an outcome, although it is not a guarantee that this outcome will actually happen. It represents the current market price of that contract, which arises from supply and demand.
Furthermore, investing on Polymarket is a good opportunity to make a profit, so certain users have invested not because of political convictions, but because of the chance to make extra money, perhaps because they realised the price was low relative to the information they hold and that they could monetise it well. Current prices are often interpreted as the probability assessment given by the market, but they should not be viewed as an objective or infallible forecast.
Therefore, when much remains unknown, Polymarket should not be used at this moment to judge what the chances of United Serbia or the Student List are in the elections on 25th October.
However, given that the compositions of the two lists with the highest chances of winning are known, it will be useful to observe how future events and new information received by the public will affect the movement of figures on Polymarket.
Serbian elections on Polymarket
Polymarket currently offers the chance to “bet” on 10 candidates, including Vladan Đokić, Ana Brnabić, Đuro Macut, as well as Dragan Đilas, Ivica Dačić, Miloš Vučević, alongside unexpected candidates such as Stefan Krkobabić or the economist Branimir Jovanović from Vienna.
What is important for understanding the figures is that Polymarket opened the possibility of forecasting the new Prime Minister of Serbia as early as 1st July – long before much was known. Neither the timing of the elections was known, nor whether Vučić would be the SNS candidate, and certainly not what the Student List would look like.
During this period, a significant sum was wagered on Ana Brnabić, only for her probability of becoming Prime Minister to drop to just 2% now that much more is known. Given that it is much more certain Vučić will be Prime Minister in the event of an SNS victory, some of those who previously invested in her could lose money if they hold their contracts until the market closes. On the other hand, those who bought contracts at a lower price and sold them at a higher one in the meantime have made a profit.
Srdanović’s surge
Something similar applies to Ilija Srdanović. After appearing in the current offerings, his market price quickly reached a level implying a 42% probability of becoming Prime Minister. Just yesterday, the probability of him specifically becoming Prime Minister was 34%.
However, that does not mean Vučić definitively has a 14 percentage point higher probability of becoming Prime Minister. This is a matter of the difference between two current market assessments by Polymarket participants, which can change as information arrives. Likewise, much information about Srdanović is still unknown, so it is more likely that Polymarket users are still holding back from investing more money in him – in other words, waiting for more information. It is in this light that one should understand why much less money has been wagered on him than on Vučić.
How much has been traded so far
Polymarket data shows that by 6:30 this morning, $107,200 had been turned over in forecasting the new Prime Minister (figures change from hour to hour). However, caution is required here in interpretation as well. This amount includes transactions when a user buys contracts, then resells them, and perhaps a buyer subsequently trades them too. All these transactions feed into this sum.
The highest turnover was achieved by trading Vučić’s contract, with a trade value of $64,900. This is followed by Brnabić with a turnover of $13,600, while significantly behind are Vladan Đokić with a turnover of $5,500 and Ilija Srdanović with $5,000 (up to yesterday 3,300).
Placing the largest share of money on Vučić does not mean this is an indicator of support. Users can also buy contracts forecasting that Vučić will not be Prime Minister, and they can profit from that outcome.
Those who invested in Đokić may also not have been wrong, because it could happen that they make a good profit if he becomes Prime Minister following a victory by the Student List. Contracts for Đokić as Prime Minister can currently be bought for just four cents (4.09 dinars). If he were truly to become Prime Minister, each contract would be worth a dollar (102 dinars), which would mean a serious profit.
It is also possible that new candidates for Prime Minister will emerge as the elections draw closer. With the appearance of Srdanović in the offerings and the publication of the Student List, the distribution of market prices has also changed. The price of Vučić’s contract, which previously reached around 77 percent, later fell, while Srdanović quickly reached around 42 percent.
For someone to receive their money, the new Prime Minister must be elected in parliament.
Polymarket does not know who the Prime Minister will be
The conclusion is that Polymarket “does not know” who the Prime Minister will be. A contract of 56 cents for Vučić or 42 cents for Srdanović shows the prices at which traders are currently willing to buy and sell contracts related to this specific event.
Nevertheless, the movement of this “stock exchange” in the coming days and weeks can suggest a great deal. Therefore, instead of the question “Who will be the new Prime Minister?”, a more interesting question is “How quickly can the market change its assessment when it receives new political information?” Thus, by following the price movement on Polymarket, we will see how users react to the campaign, statements, the withdrawal of certain lists, and so on.
(Forbes Serbia, 18.09.2026)