According to the latest issue of Macroeconomic Analyses and Trends (MAT) magazine, the data for June and July show that the Serbian economy, after a deep decline in activity in April and only a partial recovery in May, has recovered much more quickly than previously expected.
This mainly refers to the mid-year increase in industrial production in June and July and a significant slowdown in the fall in external trade.
According to the analysis, after a record decline on both a mid-year and seasonally adjusted basis in total industrial and manufacturing production in April, although the decline remained large in May, it was roughly halved.
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Seasonally adjusted growth continued in June and July, so that both in the industrial sector and the processing industry the seasonally adjusted value in July exceeded last year’s average.
After a record drop of 16.7% in April, the decline in industrial production followed in May, but it was smaller, at 9.3%. The cumulative decline in the January-May period was thus 2.6%, but in June the value increased by 2.7% and in July by 0.4%, which reduced the cumulative mid-year decline for the period January-July at 1.4%.
As for external trade, both exports and imports were cut by more than a quarter in April. In May, the decline was only symbolically reduced, while in June and July, it was reduced to a single digit.
As for the seasonally adjusted data, in June and July, they increased significantly in both cases,, but have not yet reached the level of the average of the previous year.
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