Criminal groups in the Western Balkans have established a direct operational presence in drug-producing countries, thereby significantly increasing the volumes of cocaine, heroin, and cannabis reaching the European Union, according to the European Border and Coast Guard Agency (Frontex) in its annual risk analysis for 2026/27.
The analysis, published on the Frontex website, states that organised criminal groups in the Western Balkans have expanded their power and operational reach in recent years by eliminating intermediaries and establishing a direct presence in drug-producing countries, which has significantly boosted the quantities of narcotics shipped to Europe.
“The region will remain a key transit zone for cocaine from Latin America, heroin from Afghanistan via Central Asia, and cannabis, with several Western Balkan countries continuing to rank among Europe’s largest outdoor cannabis producers. Criminal organisations are further exploiting legal medical cannabis cultivation systems to supply illegal European Union markets,” Frontex warns.
It is also added that organised criminal networks operating across the Western Balkans, the Western Mediterranean, and the Union’s eastern borders are expanding their reach and refining their methods of operation, posing a growing risk to border management personnel and the integrity of the EU’s external borders. According to Frontex, these networks are becoming increasingly linked with migrant smuggling operations, further fueling violence and the development of tactics to evade detection.
The analysis notes a rise in the illicit trafficking of converted firearms – blank-firing weapons modified to fire live ammunition – often imported from Turkey and the Western Balkans, which increasingly end up in the hands of migrant smuggling networks.
“Consequently, such weapons are being used more frequently against migrants, rival criminal groups, and law enforcement officers,” the analysis highlights. Indeed, the more frequent use of firearms by migrant smuggling networks is presented as the most prominent operational security challenge in the region.
“Incidents where armed smugglers attack migrants, rival criminal organisations, and law enforcement officers have become more frequent, and this trend is expected to continue. Therefore, strengthening border security, improving inter-agency coordination, and developing rapid response capabilities are among the key priorities in border management,” Frontex states.
The Western Balkan route remains a key transit corridor
It is estimated that migratory movements in the Western Balkans will continue to reflect developments on the Eastern Mediterranean route, albeit with a certain time lag.
“Certain groups of foreign nationals will continue to abuse visa-free regimes to enter Western Balkan countries, including citizens of Turkey, China, and Russia, as well as Jordanian passport holders of Palestinian origin, driven by deteriorating conditions in their home countries or the pursuit of economic opportunities. The overall migratory pressure will be mitigated by policing operations, seasonal factors, as well as the deterrent effect of violence and kidnappings carried out by smuggling networks,” the analysis reads.
At the same time, the Western Balkan route remains a crucial transit corridor through which migrants from Greece, as well as those arriving in Western Balkan countries by air, continue their journey via Croatia, Slovenia, and northern Italy.
Frontex concludes that over the next 12 months, the EU’s south-eastern border region will face a complex and volatile security environment. This will be marked by armed conflict, regional instability, the consolidation of a new migration corridor, a rise in cross-border crime, and the activities of armed migrant smuggling networks in the Western Balkans, presenting a medium-to-high risk to European Integrated Border Management (EIBM).
“The most significant short-term factor shaping migration and security conditions in the region is the war involving the United States and Israel against Iran. This factor opens up a wide range of possible scenarios over the forecast period – ranging from the survival of the current Iranian regime under a tense status quo, which is assessed as the more likely short- and medium-term scenario with a low-to-moderate impact on migration, to state collapse or the outbreak of a civil war. The consequences of a potential state collapse or civil war remain uncertain in the short and medium term, but would carry the risk of mass population displacement with exceptionally severe consequences for the external borders of the European Union,” the Frontex analysis concludes.
(N1, 01.07.2026)