The Stellantis factory in Serbia strongly boosted domestic exports in the first seven months of the year, when exports of motor vehicles and trailers jumped by 50.6 per cent. Total exports grew almost twice as fast as imports, which reduced the trade deficit, while Italy and Greece led the markets with the highest growth.
Foreign trade in goods from January to July amounted to 5.47 trillion dinars, or 46.6 billion euros – 6.3 per cent more than in the same period last year, according to a report by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia (RZS). Exports grew by 8.8 per cent to 21.09 billion euros, or approximately 2.47 trillion dinars, while imports increased by 4.4 per cent to 25.5 billion euros, or around three trillion dinars.
Since the summer of 2023, the value of merchandise exports has been growing steadily, with average monthly increments of around twenty million euros, according to the September issue of Macroeconomic Analyses and Trends magazine (MAT). In the first five months of this year, these increments were reportedly twice as large – from May to July, the export trend value stabilised at around three billion euros per month. “In the January – July 2026 period, about 82.7 per cent of merchandise imports were covered by exports, which is a better result compared to a year earlier, when this ratio stood at 79.4 per cent” – MAT says.
Sharp drop in energy exports
From the beginning of the year to the end of July, energy recorded a sharp export drop of 35.3 per cent, falling from 89 to 57.6 billion dinars (around 490.84 million euros), while imports rose by 3.2 per cent, from 321.5 to 331.8 billion dinars (around 2.83 billion euros). Consequently, the trade deficit in this sector widened from 232.5 to 274.2 billion dinars.
July data alone were also unfavourable for the energy sector. Energy exports fell from 10.5 to 8.3 billion dinars (around 70.73 million euros), a decrease of 20.5 per cent, whilst imports decreased by 0.6 per cent, from 35.7 to 35.5 billion dinars (around 302.51 million euros). This increased the deficit from 25.2 to 27.1 billion dinars, or as much as 230.93 million euros. Among intermediate products, exports grew by 0.4 per cent in July, while imports jumped by 5.6 per cent. As a result, this sector shifted from a surplus of 0.9 billion dinars last year to a deficit of 6.6 billion dinars (around 56.24 million euros).
“It is interesting that energy is recording a relatively favourable foreign trade result. Imports of this specific category in the first seven months of this year increased by 82.4 million euros, or three per cent, compared to the same period in 2025. However, the widening of the deficit in energy trade was driven much more by the drop in exports,” the September MAT states.
Behind these figures lies the implementation of the European CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism) from 1st January 2026, which has drastically reduced the competitiveness of electricity from Serbian thermal power plants on the EU market. For the domestic economy, this means that certain export products from energy-intensive industries—aluminium, iron, steel, cement, fertilisers, hydrogen, and electricity—will require proof of CO2 emissions during production to enter the EU market, along with the payment of an appropriate fee for emitted gases aligned with the European carbon price.
Jump in motor vehicle exports by nearly 50 per cent
According to MAT, the manufacturing industry has by far the highest year-on-year export growth in the first seven months of this year. As one of the key parts of the domestic economy, manufacturing increased its exports by 11.3 per cent in July to 321.9 billion dinars (around 2.74 billion euros), while imports grew by seven per cent to 338.6 billion dinars, or about 2.89 billion euros. This sector accounted for as much as 89.8 per cent of Serbia’s total exports in July, the RZS report states.
From January to July, the manufacturing industry grew sharply, achieving a 9.5 per cent increase in exports to 2.12 billion dinars, or approximately 18.57 million euros, alongside a slightly more moderate import growth of 7.3 per cent. This sector accounted for as much as 88 per cent of the country’s total exports in the first seven months of 2026.
The production of motor vehicles and trailers stood out in particular, thanks to the Stellantis factory in Kragujevac, where production restarted early last year. Exports in this sector jumped by 46 per cent in July, from 37.9 to 55.4 billion dinars (around 472.09 million euros), whilst imports of components and vehicles increased by 64.9 per cent, from 21.4 to 35.3 billion dinars (around 300.81 million euros). This sector’s share of Serbia’s total exports rose to 15.5 per cent.
In the first seven months of this year, exports of motor vehicles and trailers increased by 50.6 per cent, from 253.2 to 381.3 billion dinars (around 3.25 billion euros). Imports grew by 39.9 per cent, from 139.7 to 195.5 billion dinars (around 1.67 billion euros), while the surplus increased from 113.5 to 185.8 billion dinars (around 1.58 billion euros). This branch’s share of the country’s total exports reached 15.4 per cent.
Mining advanced since the beginning of the year, fell in July
In the first seven months, mining saw strong export growth of 31.5 per cent, primarily thanks to the extraction of metal ores, the exports of which increased from 130.7 to 169.5 billion dinars (around 1.44 billion euros). Additionally, mining imports decreased by 5.8 per cent. Consequently, the sector’s deficit was reduced from 95.3 to 39.9 billion dinars (around 340 million euros).
In July, however, mining recorded a decline. Exports decreased by 22.4 per cent, while imports dropped by 23.6 per cent. A drop in the export of metal ores from 20.1 to 14.8 billion dinars (around 126.12 million euros) and a reduction in the import of crude oil and natural gas from 19.6 to 15.7 billion dinars (around 133.79 million euros) had the greatest impact on these trends. Nevertheless, due to the larger drop in imports, the mining deficit decreased from 3.8 to 2.7 billion dinars, or about 23 million euros.
As a reminder, mining in Serbia is at a turning point. Last year, the sector generated a fifth of the domestic economy’s total net profit, but data indicate that the current expansion model is exhausted after this branch served as the driver of the Serbian economy for several years. However, the main player is the Chinese mining giant Zijin, whose two companies in eastern Serbia have for some time been ranked among the firms with the highest net profits in Serbia.
Fertilizer and mineral exports jump nearly 200 per cent
Among individual product groups, fruit and vegetable exports stood out in particular, growing by 19.6 per cent in the first seven months, from 74.3 to 88.9 billion dinars, or around 757.56 million euros. Imports increased by 3.7 per cent, more than doubling the surplus from 11.2 to 23.4 billion dinars (around 199.4 million euros).
Exports of coffee, tea, cocoa, spices, and products thereof decreased by 15.9 per cent, while imports fell by 7.5 per cent. The deficit thus increased from 18.8 to 19.3 billion dinars (around 164.46 million euros).
Crude fertilizers and minerals recorded export growth of as much as 184.7 per cent, from 2.2 to 6.3 billion dinars (around 53.69 million euros), while imports increased by 31.5 per cent, from 9.2 to 12.1 billion dinars (around 103.11 million euros). Interestingly, the mineral fertilizer market itself was singled out as the primary driver of persistently higher price growth for agricultural inputs in Serbia. Specifically, the price hike for fertilizers in Serbia was an enormous 260 per cent in 2022, and the total increase in mineral fertilizer prices from 2020 to 2025 in Serbia amounted to about 95 per cent.
In contrast, according to MAT, the sectors with the largest drops in exports since the beginning of the year were:
- Transport equipment: 33.1 per cent
- Tobacco products: 10.8 per cent
- Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products: 13.6 per cent
The European Union remains the primary market
Serbia’s foreign trade in goods is highest with countries with which it has signed free trade agreements, with European Union member states accounting for 58.6 per cent of total trade. From the beginning of the year until the end of last month, the EU remained by far Serbia’s largest foreign trade partner. Exports of goods to EU countries grew by 10.7 per cent, whilst imports increased by 4.6 per cent. Thanks to faster export growth, Serbia’s trade deficit with the EU decreased from 161.3 to 83.3 billion dinars (around 709.84 million euros).
Significant growth was also recorded in trade with the countries of the Middle East. Exports increased by 37.4 per cent, from 28.4 to 39.1 billion dinars (around 333.19 million euros), while imports rose by 14.9 per cent. The deficit was thus reduced from 8.4 to 3.2 billion dinars, more precisely around 27.27 million euros.
Italy among the markets with the highest export growth
A significant trade surplus was achieved in trade with Germany, Bulgaria, and the United Kingdom, according to the RZS. Germany, however, as the country upon which most of the Adria region relies, remained one of Serbia’s largest trading partners in the new data as well. Incidentally, an economic crisis has persisted in that European nation for some time, though exports continue to hold up. Germany remains, after all, as the country upon which most of the Adria region relies, one of Serbia’s major trading partners in the latest figures.
(Bloomberg Adria, 14.09.2026)