Despite achieved progress in reducing red tape as one of the biggest obstacles to investments, Serbia is still trailing behind Europe in terms of economic growth.
The Serbian Statistical Office has released a flash projection of the GDP growth for the third quarter of this year which says that the GDP will grow only 2.1%. Although this is a better result compared to the first and second quarter, it is still below the projected 3% for this year.
In the last five years, Serbia has achieved quarterly GDP growth over 3% on only three occasions, and now we need at least 3.4%.
Following the IMF’s official visit to Belgrade in late September, the Fund has reduced its previous growth projection from 3% to 2.3%. Ivan Nikolic from Macroeconomic Analyses and Trends magazine says that if Serbia continues to record the industrial growth, as it has been in the last two months, it is possible to reach the IMF’s projected growth.
“Industrial growth has gone up, and, ending with September, its cumulative growth was 3.5%. If this industrial growth continued, the GDP growth could well be over 2% by the end of this year”, Nikolic says.
A Faculty of Economics professor, Milojko Arsic adds that the 2.1% growth in Q3 is in line with the growth forecast for 2017 which puts the growth between 1.5% and 2%.
“Even if we don’t take into consideration the negative influence of our agriculture on the GDP growth, Serbia’s economic growth would be between 2.5% and 3% which is still one of the slowest growths in Central and Eastern Europe where the average growth is around 4%”, Arsic adds.
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