Following a highly profitable partnership last year, Serbia has decided – under newly emerging circumstances – to halt ammunition exports to Israel. The announcement was made by Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić on Monday, following a session of the extended Collegium of the Chief of the General Staff of the Serbian Armed Forces.
He did not elaborate on the decision, leaving open the question of whether the reasons were diplomatic, security-related, or principled. Just a few hours later, on the same day, the Ministry of Defence announced the suspension of exports of weapons and military equipment manufactured in Serbia.
Serbia’s long-standing foreign policy of sitting on two diplomatic chairs – a doctrine the country has adhered to for two decades – proves particularly challenging during times of conflict, as the world has witnessed in recent years. When commercial interests from arms and ammunition sales are factored in, the position of a neutral country becomes even more complex.
Serbia experienced this first-hand when, at the end of May, Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service accused Belgrade of profiting from the bloodshed of its Slavic brothers by continuing to export ammunition to Ukraine. The same accusation was repeated on Monday, 23 June, when the Russian service claimed Serbia was sending increasing quantities of military goods to Ukraine – via intermediaries – lamenting that “traditions of friendship and mutual assistance are being erased by the thirst for profit and cowardly multivectorism.”
The outbreak of war between Israel and Iran presented yet another opportunity for Serbia to be accused of profiting from the bloodshed of a friendly nation. This time, however, Serbia chose to pre-empt such a development.
“We’ve now stopped everything. Special decisions will be needed if anything is to be exported. The ammunition is going to our barracks and our stockpiles,” the Serbian president stated after the extended Collegium meeting.
Speaking about cooperation with Israel, the president noted that the situation post-7 October 2023 – after the Hamas terrorist attack on Israel – was different from today.
“We literally stopped everything and are now sending it to our army,” Vučić said, adding that Serbia has never exported weapons, only ammunition.
He explained that this export directly supports 24,000 people and indirectly around 150,000.
“I won’t leave 150,000 people without bread. My job was to open up markets for them. I’ve opened nearly all Asian markets, the American market,” Vučić said.
Just last year, ammunition exports to Israel brought Serbia over €40 million. According to a joint investigation by the BIRN portal and Israeli newspaper Haaretz, the value of Serbian ammunition exports to Israel in 2023 was €1.4 million. This figure rose significantly to €42.3 million the following year, after Israel launched attacks on Hamas and Hezbollah.
Still, this pales in comparison to the estimated €800 million Serbia earned from exporting ammunition to Ukraine over the past three years of conflict, according to the Financial Times in London – a figure the Serbian president confirmed in a statement to the newspaper.
Beyond the ambiguity surrounding the scope of the export moratorium, the motives behind it remain unclear.
Military analyst Vlade Radulović opposes the halting of ammunition exports but acknowledges that the state clearly has its reasons.
“The defence industry is a significant economic sector, directly supporting tens of thousands of people. I believe the decision was based on analyses and data held by state authorities. On the other hand, one positive aspect is that all this ammunition will now go into our warehouses, which will strengthen our armed forces’ capabilities,” Radulović said.
He added that continuing ammunition exports to Israel could lead to certain diplomatic consequences for Serbia but doubted the decision was made due to potential security threats.
“We could certainly receive protest notes or other forms of reaction from Iran or other countries. But that’s simply part of diplomatic relations. However, I would rule out the security aspect. We’re not that important in a global context. Our exports haven’t significantly supported Israel, nor have they harmed Iran to such an extent that it would pose a security risk. So I don’t see retaliation over ammunition sales as a realistic scenario,” Radulović emphasised.
War among friends
On the one hand, Serbia had maintained friendly relations with both countries prior to the war. In September last year, Israeli President Isaac Herzog visited Serbia, and a few weeks later, the Serbian president held talks with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York. On that occasion, the Israeli Prime Minister expressed his gratitude for Serbia’s unwavering support and strong friendship.
At the same time, relations with Iran had also been positive, particularly highlighted by the fact that Iran has not recognised Kosovo’s independence. In an official capacity, Serbian President Tomislav Nikolić visited Iran in 2016. More recently, notable visits include that of Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian to Belgrade in December 2022. While serving as Minister for Family Welfare, Darija Kisić visited Iran in 2023, and Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandar Vulin travelled there twice in 2024.
After missiles were launched between Israel and Iran on 13 June, Serbia remained neutral, with its top officials refraining from supporting either side in their public statements.
Mirko Dautović, a professor of international relations at Webster University in Tashkent, points out that the decision to suspend arms exports shows that the Serbian president has begun to take constructive criticism into account. He also argues that continuing such exports would have dealt a diplomatic blow to Serbia.
“That would have jeopardised Serbia’s standing among the countries it presents itself to as a friendly partner, primarily those of the former Non-Aligned Movement. Halting exports could give the impression, particularly among Muslim-majority countries, as well as nations in Africa and South America, that Serbia has recognised its mistake and is willing to correct it,” Dautović explains.
He adds that the situation with Iran has shown that Serbian diplomacy is strong in words but vanishes in times of crisis.
“Serbia is currently very cautious in the context of the Israel-Iran war, and such a policy could be described as cowardly. It is certainly not skilful, as it is driven solely by the goal of navigating its small boat between the Scylla and Charybdis of global politics. Our diplomacy is nowhere near the quality of that of socialist Yugoslavia, when we were a respected and influential voice among Third World countries. Now, the priority of those in power is how to make money – whether by selling arms, raw materials, or something else. Everything is subordinated to GDP growth, without any analysis of whether or how much that growth benefits the people. GDP growth comes before ethics, both in foreign and domestic policy,” concludes Professor Mirko Dautović.
(Insajder, 24.06.2025)
https://www.insajder.net/teme/srpski-izvoz-municije-neudobno-sedenje-na-dve-stolice