If current demographic trends continue, Serbia will have almost one million fewer inhabitants by 2052 than at the beginning of the 2030s. According to projections by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia, the population is expected to fall from around 6.2 million in 2032 to 5.22 million in 2052.
As published in the Demographic Statistics for 2024 by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia, a very pronounced decline in the future could be recorded among the youngest population.
Specifically, the number of children aged up to four is expected to fall from 273,000 in 2032 to 232,000 in 2052. Similar projections apply to children aged five to nine – from almost 300,000 to fewer than 240,000 over the same period, from 2032 to 2052.
Last year, there were more than 308,000 children aged up to four, which shows that the expected decline is even more dramatic, and the same applies to children aged five to nine, of whom there were more than 320,000.
Furthermore, the number of children aged 10 to 14 is expected to fall from 315,000 in 2032 to 243,000 in 2052. Finally, according to the projections of the Statistical Office, the number of young people aged 15 to 19 will fall from 319,000 in 2032 to 253,000 in 2052.
As for last year, there were 322,000 children aged 10 to 14, and around 330,000 aged up to 19.
On the other hand, the only population categories in which growth is expected are the oldest age groups. Specifically, according to projections, the number of people aged between 80 and 84 will rise from 248,000 to 270,000 between 2032 and 2052. In addition, over the same period, the number of citizens aged over 85 could increase from around 81,000 to 112,000.
Already now, the number of people in these age groups is lower than what is expected in 2032, which means that a continuous increase in the oldest population groups is projected. Specifically, last year there were 165,000 citizens aged between 80 and 84 in Serbia.
A fall in population from 6.6 to 5.2 million
In all other population categories, observed by age, from young people to pensioners, a decline in numbers will be recorded, the projections show. The total population will fall from an estimated 6.2 million in 2032 to 5.22 million in 2052, a decline of around 15.7 per cent.
However, it is estimated that slightly more than 6.5 million people lived in Serbia last year, which represents an even larger decline – of 1.36 million people.
These projections are based on assumptions about trends in fertility, mortality and migration.
(Nova Ekonomija, 10.01.2026)