Food prices in Serbia are approaching the EU average faster than the prices of other goods and services. In the case of food products, they have reached 96.6% of the EU average. Food in our country is more expensive than in 11 countries across Central and Eastern Europe. When prices are compared to member states in our region, the gap is even wider.
For instance, in Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, and Croatia, food prices stand at around 92% of the European average – noticeably lower than in Serbia.
These are the findings of the Fiscal Council, published in its latest study, “Serbia’s Agriculture Between Stagnation and Reform: Production, Prices, and Agricultural Policy”.
Comparable in prices, not in wages
In its study, the Fiscal Council notes that it is common for less developed countries to catch up with wealthier ones in terms of prices, often faster than they do in terms of average income. Serbia is no exception. When comparing all consumer prices for goods and services, Serbia reached nearly 60% of the EU average in 2024. Even here, however, Serbia sits above Romania (55.1%) and Bulgaria (55.7%).
On the other hand, the average income in Serbia was not even half the EU average in the same year, although it has drawn closer. Such an income level is 15 percentage points lower than in Bulgaria, even though Bulgaria is the economically least developed EU member state.
What is even more striking in Serbia, however, is the price growth and convergence when it comes to food and non-alcoholic beverages – items that account for roughly a third of the average consumer basket in Serbia. “Consequently, this fact carries additional economic and social weight,” the authors observe.
Which foods are more expensive than in Europe
According to this analysis, prices in six out of ten food categories are higher than the European average, while the domestic market is more expensive in almost every category when compared to Central and Eastern European countries. The exceptions are non-alcoholic beverages, cereals, and cereal products.
“The largest upward deviations from the EU average are recorded in oils and fats, which are around 20% higher, as well as sugar, jams, and confectionery, which are about 15% higher. Similar anomalies exist in categories with a higher degree of processing, such as ready-made meals and other food products. Milk, processed meats, and eggs are also affected, with prices around 8% above the EU level.”
On the other hand, vegetable prices in Serbia are lower, standing at 90% of the EU average, while cereals, fruit, and meat sit at around 85%. Yet even here, there are signs of catching up. For example, meat prices rose between 2022 and 2024 to such an extent that they jumped from 81.5% to 88.5% of the EU average.
“Such a high level of food prices points to structural anomalies in the domestic agri-food chain. Given the country’s economic characteristics, one would expect food prices in Serbia to be noticeably below the European average. There are three main reasons for this,” the authors state.
Why food prices should not be this high
First, Serbia has reached only half the EU’s development level, and standard economic logic dictates that less developed countries have a lower absolute price level due to lower wages, lower operating costs, and weaker consumer purchasing power. Romania and Bulgaria serve as excellent illustrations as the least developed member states: food prices there stand at roughly 76% and 89% of the EU average, respectively – significantly lower than in Serbia, which is less developed than both.
The second reason lies in the fact that Serbia is traditionally a net exporter of agricultural and food products. This means it produces more than it needs for domestic consumption. In such cases, “economic logic suggests this should exert downward pressure on prices in the domestic market.”
Finally, in recent years, the state has radically increased agricultural subsidies from the budget to around 1% of GDP, bringing Serbia on par with EU countries. “Had it been better targeted, this type of incentive should have translated into higher productivity, a more stable supply, and reduced price pressures,” the authors conclude.
Who is responsible along the chain
Explaining why primary producers are not entirely “blameless” in driving up prices, the Fiscal Council notes: “Producer prices in Serbia have reached a high 87% of the EU average, suggesting that price pressures on food emerge partly at the primary production level.”
They go on to explain that lower operating costs and extensive fiscal incentives ought to make the raw material base cheaper rather than more expensive. “Inefficiencies within agricultural production itself set food prices at a relatively high level right from the initial stage. However, when comparing this data with retail store prices – which stood at nearly 95% of the EU average between 2022 and 2024 – it becomes clear that this is not the only explanation.”
In other words, the gap between farmgate purchasing prices and final retail prices suggests that inefficiency in other links of the chain – such as processing, distribution, retail, and retail markups – is also responsible for a significant share of the price build-up racing towards the European average.
A sharp rise compared to the previous decade
The Fiscal Council’s study points out that the current price level in primary production is unusual, noting that over the previous decade, prices had been approaching European levels at an average rate of 15 percentage points.
“Trends show that between 2015 and 2017, prices stood at 72% of the European average. They were therefore slightly above those in Central and Eastern Europe, but noticeably below prices in neighbouring countries.”
However, everything changed abruptly in 2021. As the study’s authors note, a sharp turn occurred from that year onwards. In 2022, prices jumped to nearly 96% of the EU average, while the three-year average from 2022 to 2024 reached the aforementioned 87%.
“This period of pronounced growth in farmgate prices coincides with the global crisis in key agricultural inputs during 2021 and 2022, which affected the whole of Europe. Nevertheless, it is telling that the impact of this shock on producer prices in Serbia was far stronger than in other European economies.”
In other words, the surge in agricultural prices at that moment cannot be justified solely by external factors. Despite the rise in prices for chemical fertilisers, seeds, and plant protection products, such a massive jump was also the result of domestic factors and imbalances.
Flawed agricultural policy
The study states that poor agricultural policy is not without influence on final food prices and their rise, though its impact should not be “overstated”.
There are many participants in the food supply chain from “farm to fork”, and each of these links represents a separate cost and profit centre.
The Fiscal Council notes that while its study primarily focused on analysing agriculture and bottlenecks within agricultural production and policy, comparing farmgate prices with retail prices indicates that other segments of the chain are also less efficient than those in the EU.
“The possible causes are numerous: from low productivity and lagging value added within individual sectors to an unfavourable market structure and market concentration in certain segments of the chain. This puts participants at a disadvantage and creates price distortions to the detriment of both farmers and consumers. Eliminating all these anomalies goes beyond traditional agricultural policy measures; long-term food market stabilisation requires strong cohesion with policies in other sectors, a focus on protecting competition, and an overall improvement of the business environment in the country,” the analysis concludes.
(Forbes Serbia, 07.09.2026)