Penev: ‘Serbia’s demographic future is uncertain’

Demographer Goran Penev says that the demographic future of Serbia is uncertain, both in terms of mortality and fertility of the population and in terms of the intensity and direction of migration movements.

In an interview for Novi Magazin weekly, Penev said that it is certain that migrants from Asia, Africa and Latin America will come to Serbia to live and work much more, and he expects the national structure of Serbia’s population to change in the coming decades.

“The results of the latest demographic projections indicate that, in the coming decades, we can expect a further decrease in Serbia’s population and even more intense ageing. Therefore, in 2061, the population would be significantly smaller than in 2021. Depending on the assumption based on the fertility trend (the number of births per woman aged between 15 and 49), the population would stand at 5 million, if a woman has 1.3 children and up to 6.2 million, if a woman has 2.1 children, which is almost impossible at the moment”, said the demographer.

He also said the share of people over 65 in the population would be between 27.3% and 34%, while the share of people under the age of 15 would fall to between 10.5% and 17.5%.

“There are currently 980,332 young people under the age of 14, or 14.3% of the total population, while there are as many as 1,460,603 people over the age of 65, representing 21.3% of the population. 30 years ago, there were 1,449,913 or 19.4% of young people under the age of 14 and 892,977, or 11.9% of the population, over the age of 65,” Penev warned.

In the past 10 years, some 300,000 people have left Serbia, while 150,000 have come to live in the country.

“It is assumed that, by 2030, there will be a slowdown brain drain and subsequently Serbia will become a country of immigration. It is expected that, in ten years, Serbia will become attractive for migrants from Asian and African countries, as well as for migrants from Latin America,” Penev added.

(Nova, 07.07.2021)


This post is also available in: Italiano

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