Forty-nine per cent of respondents in the latest opinion poll believe that things in Serbia are moving in the wrong direction, which comes as bad news for the government. This is the assessment given to N1 by Aleksandar Ivković, a journalist for European Western Balkans and a political commentator.
The portal Savremena Politika published a public opinion survey by the International Republican Institute stating that 49 per cent of respondents feel things in Serbia are going in the wrong direction, while 41 per cent believe they are moving in the right direction. Ivković says these are bad signs for the ruling authorities.
“Analysts like to say that the question of which direction people think the country is heading in is a good indicator of whether there will be a change of government at the elections. This does not mean that everyone who says Serbia is not going in the right direction will necessarily vote against the government, but it is a general indicator showing that this situation has not changed for a long time,” he notes, adding that this trend has persisted since last spring.
Ivković states that at the beginning of 2025, with the emergence of the student movement, public opinion shifted significantly. Since then, indicators related to the country’s direction and what people view as the biggest problem in Serbia have remained stable.
“Since the canopy collapse, corruption has emerged as the single biggest issue across all major surveys, which is also bad news for the government because they would prefer corruption not to be an election topic, as it works against them,” he says.
When asked, “If elections were held this Sunday, how likely is it that you would vote?”, 68 per cent of respondents answered that they would be “very likely” to vote, and a further 15 per cent said they would be “likely” to vote. According to Ivković, this suggests we can expect a very high turnout.
“Especially if that 15 per cent who said they would likely vote end up making up their minds and turning out. No poll indicates that the government can significantly expand its voter base, which means that almost all incoming new voters are likely far more anti-government than pro-government. The higher the turnout and the more voters decide, the more negative the news becomes for the ruling party,” Ivković explains.
Polls also show that support for the European Union has risen in Serbia. Ivković believes this is influenced by regional developments, where people see Montenegro and Albania accelerating their integration processes.
“What is significant is that those who support the student protests are above-average pro-European. Support for the EU among them stands at 61 per cent, with opposition at twenty-something per cent,” he says.
Regarding how this might impact the student movement – given that they have not declared a position on the matter – Ivković assumes it comes down to strategic thinking.
“Yes, 61 per cent are in favour of the EU, but they cannot afford to lose that twenty-something per cent either. As relatively negative as these poll findings are for the government, a tightly contested election race is still expected, and every single vote will count. In that sense, I assume the strategic thinking within the student movement is to avoid taking a firm stance on the EU, as doing so might alienate voters who oppose the EU but would otherwise vote for the student list,” he explains.
Ivković believes that if the government calls snap parliamentary elections, they will do so before the presidential election to secure their position in parliament first.
“The strategy would be to secure themselves through the parliamentary vote, so whether they win or lose the presidential election wouldn’t matter as much, provided they regain a parliamentary majority. However, it remains uncertain whether they will manage to secure that majority,” he assesses.
The N1 contributor also thinks that a final decision has not yet been made, but that internal instructions have been issued within the SNS to prepare for parliamentary elections by the end of the year.
“Whether they will actually be called will be assessed in early autumn, once social assistance payments – the ‘helicopter money’ announced for the second half of September – have been rolled out. Another factor might be waiting to see who wins the elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina scheduled for 4 October,” Ivković concludes.
(021.rs, 06.08.2026)