Inflation in Serbia will hover around the central target value of three plus/minus 1.5 per cent until September, and will then, due to the low base effect – primarily in food prices – amount to around four per cent by the end of this year, according to the latest projections of the National Bank of Serbia (NBS).
Presenting the inflation report, the Governor of the National Bank of Serbia, Jorgovanka Tabaković, stressed that the projected inflation path will also be influenced by the expected expiry of the Decree on Margin Limits. However, she noted that the adoption of an appropriate legal framework will improve market regulation and prevent unfair trading practices, which will help ensure that retail margins do not return to the levels seen prior to the decree’s introduction.
According to her, inflation in January stood at 2.4 per cent, while in the final quarter of last year it remained slightly below target, falling to 2.7 per cent in December.
In 2026, according to central bank projections, wage growth and higher disposable income are expected to stimulate stronger demand. The projections envisage that wage growth will largely be accompanied by productivity growth, meaning that the NBS does not expect significant inflationary pressures stemming from labour costs. The Bank also believes that the new agricultural season will be better than last year’s, contributing to a greater supply of fruit and vegetables.
In 2027, the central bank expects additional growth in demand due to the hosting of the international EXPO exhibition, with average inflation projected at 3.8 per cent.
Although the situation regarding the Petroleum Industry of Serbia (NIS) has become considerably more favourable, Tabaković assessed that uncertainty remains pronounced on several fronts.
“Above all, geopolitical and trade tensions between the United States and China remain significant, as do tensions in relations between the United States and the European Union. In addition, the conflict in Ukraine continues, and tensions in the Middle East have intensified. All of this is reflected in volatility on commodity and financial markets, particularly in the price of gold, which has recorded significant upward and downward fluctuations within just a few days,” the NBS Governor emphasised.
GDP growth of 3.5 per cent this year
The preliminary agreement on the acquisition of a majority stake in the Petroleum Industry of Serbia by the Hungarian company MOL is expected to secure continued production and reduce uncertainty regarding energy supply.
“Taking this into account, we expect gross domestic product growth to accelerate to 3.5 per cent this year. Growth will be driven by domestic demand, with a positive contribution from both consumption and fixed investment. Higher disposable income resulting from wage and pension increases, as well as more favourable lending conditions, will support consumption growth, while the implementation of infrastructure projects planned under the ‘Leap into the Future – Serbia Expo 2027’ programme will stimulate investment growth,” Tabaković said.
In 2027, gross domestic product growth is expected to reach around five per cent, with faster dynamics compared to 2026, driven by increased exports of services owing to the hosting of the specialised international Expo exhibition.
“In the medium term, we expect our economy to grow at a stable pace around its potential level, in the range of 3.5 to four per cent annually,” Tabaković added.
Economic growth in 2025 driven by the services sector and the automotive industry
Prolonged global uncertainty, rising protectionism and pronounced geopolitical tensions, alongside domestic socio-political developments, contributed to economic growth slowing to two per cent in 2025, according to an estimate by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia.
“Furthermore, the entry into force of US sanctions against the Oil Industry of Serbia in October, and the consequent reduction in output across the entire manufacturing sector, resulted in economic activity in the fourth quarter of 2025 maintaining a similar pace to the earlier part of the year, instead of accelerating more significantly, achieving year-on-year growth of 2.2 per cent,” Tabaković assessed.
At the annual level, economic growth in 2025 was led by the services sector, followed by industry, primarily thanks to expanded production capacities in the automotive industry.
On the other hand, construction activity declined over the year as a whole, although a recovery was recorded in the final quarter, with year-on-year growth of 10.6 per cent. A smaller decline was registered in agriculture due to unfavourable weather conditions affecting the production of autumn crops and fruit.
Tabaković: Delhaize company took 130 million euros out of Serbia
Responding to journalists’ questions regarding the arbitration proceedings initiated by the company Delhaize against Serbia, Jorgovanka Tabaković reiterated that the company, which had once enjoyed an “exceptionally comfortable and favourable position” in the country, transferred 130 million euros out of Serbia as liquidation assets by simulating a liquidation procedure.
“Exploiting loopholes in the law, it established a company at its own address, appointed a liquidator, retained for five months the amount it had calculated would constitute that year’s profit, and after five months transferred it as liquidation assets to its sole founder,” she said, adding that it is not within the NBS’s remit to verify whether taxes were paid.
“We have our own inspection service for supervising exchange offices, banks and other financial institutions, but not retail chains. However, at the time we informed the Tax Administration of the case,” Tabaković stressed.
She recalled that the decree on margin limits had been an enforced measure prompted by increases in margins on essential goods necessary for the livelihood and standard of the population, and expressed the expectation that the arbitration would be concluded in Serbia’s favour.
(Biznis.rs, 19.02.2026)
https://biznis.rs/vesti/srbija/inflacija-u-srbiji-do-kraja-godine-oko-cetiri-odsto/