National Bank of Serbia raises GDP growth estimate to 4.2%

The Serbian central bank, NBS, said on Wednesday it raised its estimate for the country’s economic growth to 4.2%, from 3.6% predicted in November 2019.

“According to our latest estimates, economic growth came in at 4.2% in 2019, exceeding all projections released in the course of the year,” central bank governor Jorgovanka Tabakovic said in remarks to the NBS ‘February 2020 inflation report published on the Bank’s website.

“Serbia outperformed all projections owing to the impact of domestic factors, notably higher than projected investment. In the past two years alone, fixed investment increased cumulatively by close to 35%, accounting for three-quarters of Serbia’s economic growth,” Tabakovic said.

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She added that in the fourth quarter of last year alone, the annual growth of Serbia’s gross domestic product (GDP) quickened to 6.1% from 4.8% in the preceding quarter.

Last year’s anticipated growth is still slightly below the 4.4% economic expansion recorded in 2018.

In the February inflation report, the NBS also affirmed its previous forecast for 4.0% of GDP growth in each of 2020 and 2021, supported by strong investment, exports and sustainable growth in household consumption.

In January, the World Bank cuts slightly its forecast for Serbia’s 2020 economic growth to 3.9% from 4.0% projected in June, adding GDP growth will then accelerate to 4.0% in 2021.

The Bank’s report states that the current account deficit in 2019 was covered by the net influx of foreign direct investments for the fifth consecutive year, which according to preliminary figures amounted to EUR 3.8 billion.

“While many predicted a downturn in their economies, Serbia exceeded all projections due to the growth in fixed investment, which increased cumulatively by almost 35% and accounted for three quarters of that growth. This year, their share is expected to increase by about 24.5% of GDP,” Tabakovic concluded.

(, Beta, 19.02.2020)

This post is also available in: Italiano

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