Although the Minister of Energy, in announcing that NIS has been granted a one-month extension to its operating licence, stated that negotiations between MOL and Gazprom regarding a sale transaction were ongoing, Forbes Serbia has information to the contrary. Our source, close to the Serbian authorities and familiar with the situation, says the negotiations have effectively collapsed.
The source indicates that Gazprom definitively has no desire to sell its stake in the Petroleum Industry of Serbia (NIS), and by staying silent on the matter, it is merely playing for time. By the time of publication, however, we had received no confirmation of this information from the MOL Group – nor a denial.
The Hungarian company did not respond to questions from Forbes Serbia regarding whether they had even requested a licence extension, as NIS had done. We also asked whether negotiations with the Russian side to acquire a majority stake were still under way, and what had stalled the talks. As a reminder, at the beginning of this year, MOL announced that a preliminary agreement on concluding a purchase contract had been reached.
A few months later, in May 2026, reports emerged that the negotiations were being finalised. At the time, the licence extension was explained by the fact that the two parties simply needed a little more time to sign the contract and for MOL to finally take over the majority stake and management of NIS, allowing Gazprom to exit ownership, which was the long-standing objective of the sanctions.
Information that MOL had secured a licence extension until the end of October to continue talks over purchasing the stake only arrived this morning. Our source, however, says this is no proof that negotiations are actually taking place.
Who benefits from delay?
For the authorities in Serbia, revealing that negotiations have collapsed and that everything is back to square one – in the middle of an election campaign – would not be good news.
On the other hand, the American arbitrator clearly has its own reasons for agreeing to postpone D-Day over recent months, even this time when several congressmen suggested stopping this practice and having OFAC finally begin enforcing sanctions against NIS.
Our well-informed source says that the United States clearly does not want to strain relations with either Serbia or the Russian Federation. On one hand, relations with Serbia are entering a period of relaxation once again. The source highlights the energy agreement between the two countries, which led to the decision to negotiate with Bechtel regarding the construction of the Đerdap 3 pumped-storage hydroelectric power plant – a major investment.
“Simply put, by continually extending the licence for NIS – which is strategically important for our country and economy – OFAC is allowing it to operate. It is likewise allowing Gazprom to remain the majority owner. However, we see that the licence is only being extended a month at a time, whereas previously it was for two weeks. Therefore, the timeframe is short enough that the situation can change rapidly should a shift in sanctions policy be deemed necessary,” the source says.
OFAC shows consideration for Serbia
Strahinja Obrenović, an assistant professor at the Faculty of Political Sciences, also told Forbes Serbia that OFAC clearly does not wish to worsen Serbia’s economic position by imposing sanctions. He believes they are guided by the fact that enforcing sanctions would harm Serbia far more than Gazprom.
“It is tricky to predict how long this situation will last, or until when OFAC will keep extending NIS’s operating licence. At the start, given the insistence on Russian capital exiting ownership, we assumed it would happen straight away, but we see that months have passed without it happening. It is a similar picture with Lukoil or Rosneft,” he explains. He points to relations between Moscow and Washington, specifically the difference between the Biden and Trump administrations regarding sanctions and the war in Ukraine, as well as the meeting between leaders Trump and Putin, and the announced trilateral talks between Russia, the US, and Ukraine.
“The Pančevo refinery was shut down for around 40 days, which aligns with the timeframe required for overhaul work. Anything longer would mean more severe consequences when restarting, causing economic damage to Serbia and seriously jeopardising its energy security. I believe those in the US are aware of this,” Obrenović says.
He also underscores the possibility that the Russian side is taking advantage of the situation to buy time, hoping that sanctions against NIS will ultimately be lifted.
Return to nationalization
Forbes Serbia’s source notes that the option of the state taking over the management of NIS has remained on the table throughout. Although the authorities mention it hesitantly and as a last resort, if sanctions against NIS were enforced in earnest, that option would prove necessary.
The source says that exiting NIS would not cause significant economic damage to the Russian side, but it would represent a geopolitical defeat. For Serbia, taking over management would become inevitable if OFAC truly “loses patience” – a scenario local authorities mentioned two months ago.
However much political damage it might suffer from “seizing Russian assets”, the economic fallout from sanctions would be even greater.
“We could not allow the refinery to stop operating or NIS to remain under sanctions. That is not an option, and everyone is aware of it. In that event, the state would have to step in and take over management, placing the funds for Gazprom’s stake into a bank account, regardless of whether they could access that money immediately or not,” our source says.
Up to now, Serbia has not invoked its right of first refusal, despite it being guaranteed in the contract signed with the Russian side back in 2008. If the negotiations between MOL and Gazprom are indeed called off soon and the breakdown is made public, that right would no longer apply, unless a third buyer is sought.
However, according to our source, it is far more likely that Serbia will face a choice between straining relations with Russia or suffering a severe disruption to its energy and economic landscape should full-scale sanctions be enforced.
(Forbes Serbia, 01.10.2026)