According to projections by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia, if the negative trend continues, the population of Serbia, which stood at slightly under 6.6 million in 2024, could fall to 5.2 million by 2052, meaning almost one and a half million fewer people than in the 2020s.
“Serbia is facing significant demographic challenges. This is not a new problem and includes a low birth rate,” lawyer and demographer Miodrag Pantović told Euronews Serbia.
He added that preliminary data from the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia for 2025 show that slightly more than 58,000 children were born in Serbia last year, while around 94,000–95,000 people died.
“This is the lowest number of births since organised statistics have existed in Serbia, but the number of deaths has also decreased significantly,” he said.
Pantović also stressed that the low fertility rate is a long-term problem and that since the late 1950s Serbia has not reached the replacement level of reproduction needed to renew the population.
“From a demographic perspective, the required number is 2.1 children per woman, and the last time we had that level was at the end of the 1950s. Serbia probably has the longest continuity of a low fertility rate in the world,” he said.
When it comes to regional differences, Pantović points out that Belgrade and Novi Sad are exceptions.
“The population in these two cities is younger, so they have greater potential for childbirth. Novi Sad has recorded a positive rate of natural increase for several years and is the only major city in the former Yugoslavia where more children are being born today than in the early 1990s,” the Euronews Serbia interviewee said.
Compared with countries in the region, Serbia records a relatively good result thanks to state and local measures supporting families.
“The total fertility rate rose from 1.37–1.38 in 2007 to 1.62 today, which places Serbia among the top five countries in Europe by this indicator,” he said.
Nevertheless, negative demographic trends continue to affect the population structure.
“Serbia is among the ten oldest countries in the world in terms of the share of the population aged over 65. More than every fourth woman in the country is older than 65, and the base for childbirth is shrinking every year,” Pantović explains.
When asked what the state can do to improve the situation, Pantović highlights a combination of measures.
“Comprehensive measures are needed, not just financial ones. In the office of Minister Tatjana Macura, we are launching a national fertility campaign ‘Za srce više’, through which awareness of reproductive health is being raised among young people, secondary school pupils and university students, as well as older primary school pupils.”
Youth migration also affects the number of working-age people. Pantović emphasises that, according to Eurostat data, the situation has partially stabilised.
“The number of young people leaving Serbia has decreased in recent years compared to the period ten years ago. Most go to Slovenia for studies and to Austria for work and family reunification,” he said.
Pantović concludes that Serbia’s demographic problems are complex and require long-term, strategic measures combining financial support for families, education and improvements in living conditions for young people.
(Biznis i Finansije, 03.02.2026)