Kon: “By mid-May we’ll be almost at the end of the epidemic”

Epidemiologist Predrag Kon says that the pandemic level in Serbia is currently reached its peak and in the coming weeks we should see a decline in “the coronavirus activity”. He adds that the figures on newly infected patients should be viewed dynamically, i.e. they are growing due to the increasing number of tested patients.

“We detect a greater number of very mild and even asymptomatic cases, so the impression is that there are more infected people, but that’s not the case because we have discovered new possible sources of the contagion and reservoirs of the virus,” said the epidemiologist.

Kon underlined that, in order to relax the measures to combat the coronavirus, we need to see a decline in the percentage of positive cases compared to the daily number of tested people.

“Only 5% of those tested should be tested positive for the virus (to relax the measures against the coronavirus), while at the moment, that percentage ranges from zero to 40 or more, depending on the part of the country,” Kon added.

The “first half” is over and the assumption is that the end of the epidemic will begin in mid-May. Furthermore, the number of serious cases (patients on respirators) and the number of those infected with mild symptoms, who are treated in makeshift hospitals, will be taken into account, “because this tells us how much the virus is kept under control”.

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Kon also said that the level of the pandemic has been decreasing in Vojvodina and Belgrade, but it is increasing in Paraćin, Ćuprija, Niš and Aleksinac.

“This is due to the number of people who returned to Serbia from abroad to those parts of the country. However, the impression is that the virulence, i.e. the ability of the virus to cause the disease, has weakened,” he adds.

Kon finally reiterated that he believes that schools will be reopened last and that distance and protection measures will be recommended as long as the virus is present.

(Vesti Online, 15.04.2020)


This post is also available in: Italiano

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