American expert on the Balkans Edward Joseph stated that it would be very difficult for Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vučić to refuse a potential US offer to join NATO, assessing that such a scenario is entirely achievable.
Joseph, a lecturer at Washington’s Johns Hopkins University, told Radio Free Europe (RFE) that among the reasons Vučić might accept NATO membership are the popularity of US President Donald Trump in Serbia and the fact that anti-government protests have weakened Vučić’s power.
“Trump is extremely popular in Serbia and is a highly influential figure. It would be very difficult for Vučić to say: ‘No, I don’t accept it.’ In addition, during his first term, Trump attempted to bring peace between Kosovo and Serbia – so this would not be something new. He knows the region and often says he stopped the war between Serbia and Kosovo,” Joseph said.
As a second reason, he pointed to the fact that Vučić is politically weakened, noting that anti-government protests in Serbia have been going on for a year, and that he is “so insecure he does not dare call elections, something he frequently did in the past.”
“Accepting such a plan (for NATO membership) would completely change the domestic political situation. The protests would no longer be in the spotlight; the focus would shift to this historic development. Of course, many pro-Russian people would call him a traitor, but a large part of the opposition would support it, because NATO membership means more reforms, progress towards the EU and an end to the policy of sitting on two chairs,” Joseph added.
Joseph assessed that the scenario is “entirely achievable, because NATO expansion in the Balkans costs the US nothing.”
“There are no threats in the Balkans that NATO could not resolve or prevent simply through its presence. So, there is no risk for the US. The Balkans are already surrounded by NATO member states. Three of the six Western Balkan countries are in NATO. Serbia is the only state in the region saying it does not want membership. Even Bosnia and Herzegovina has a formal desire to join NATO, while Kosovo, of course, strongly wants membership,” the American expert said.
He added that Serbia also has good relations with the Western military alliance, that Serbs support KFOR and that Belgrade often asks for that NATO mission in Kosovo to increase troop numbers.
“Serbia has good relations with the US military and NATO command. If you were to ask Serbian generals privately, most would want NATO membership, because it would strengthen Serbia’s arms and munitions industry,” Joseph noted.
If Serbia were offered a path to NATO membership, Trump would offer the same to Kosovo, Joseph said.
“That would mean that the Kosovan prime minister would have to sign the statute of the Association of Serb-Majority Municipalities (ASM), not just forward it to the Constitutional Court. Vučić has been demanding that association for years, and this way he would obtain it,” Joseph said.
Asked about the expected opposition from the four NATO members that do not recognise Kosovo, Joseph expressed confidence that Greece would recognise Kosovo’s independence as soon as the prime minister in Pristina signed the ASM statute.
“When Greece recognises Kosovo, it will be easier for Romania, Slovakia and Spain to follow the same path. But at this stage we are talking only about a path towards NATO membership, so they do not have to recognise Kosovo. None of the four countries needs to change its position. Perhaps in three years the situation will be completely different. Tensions will diminish, there will be more trade and more relations,” Joseph pointed out.
He also said that Serbia’s entry into NATO would be additional pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin and would represent the Balkan equivalent of Ukraine sinking the Russian warship Moskva.
“Because Serbia is the warship through which Russia projects its influence across the entire Balkans. If that ship sinks or sails into NATO waters, it would be a huge blow for Russia, even for China, because both Russia and China, formally and metaphorically, see Serbia as their strategic partner and main platform of influence in the Balkans,” Joseph said.
Joseph, a conflict-management expert who believes that the Kosovo model could serve as a basis for achieving peace in Ukraine, said that the main reason for such a view is the fact that it would suit Putin.
“The most important and most interesting thing about applying the Kosovo model to Donbas – that is, in Ukraine – is that Russian President Putin supports it. That is the starting point, but not the only one. For more than two decades, Putin has insisted that UN Security Council Resolution 1244 must be respected. Putin also constantly repeats that Kosovo and Ukraine are the same thing,” Joseph said.
Joseph, who has outlined this idea in an analysis published in the academic journal SAIS Review of International Affairs, said that applying the principles of Resolution 1244 in Donbas – international administration, deployment of peacekeeping forces and postponing the question of sovereignty – could provide Ukraine with security guarantees without Kyiv having to accept Russia’s annexation of the region.
He said that Resolution 1244 “removed the question of sovereignty from the discussion without denying or declaring Kosovo independent, but it ended the conflict and opened the way to international administration and a peacekeeping presence in Kosovo.”
“The same principle would be applied in Donbas, and the discussion about ‘who it belongs to’ would be postponed for later – with a future referendum to settle it. Putin supports referendums – he organised them in Crimea and in the parts of Donbas controlled by Russia. So, he would be offered two things he does not dispute: the model of Resolution 1244 and a referendum,” Joseph said.
He assessed that under this model Putin could gain even more territory – even more than Trump’s plan envisages – including the western parts of Donbas, which are the most sensitive for Ukraine, because this would give Russia direct influence over the entire country and even open another corridor towards Kyiv.
“But he would have to accept one condition – similar to what Kosovo did. He would have to accept Donbas being administered by a third party – either the UN or the OSCE,” Joseph noted.
He added that this would be “a favourable approach” for Ukraine because Kyiv would not have to recognise Russia’s annexation of Donbas, and the status of Crimea could be left for future negotiations.
“The second reason, and the most important for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, is security guarantees. The Kosovo model would bring international administration from the UN or the OSCE, which would immediately stop the process of Russification – the coercion into taking Russian passports, the military indoctrination of children and the obstacles for displaced persons who wish to return to their homes. Under that administration, international property commissions would also be formed,” Joseph told RFE.
(Naslovi.net, Beta, 01.12.2025)