Due to years of state capture, the undermining of institutions and extensive electoral manipulation, Serbia has been classified as a moderate autocracy, with limited economic transformation and weak governance, in the newly published Transformation Index by the German Bertelsmann Foundation.
“Democracy in Serbia continues to deteriorate, with a significant decline in electoral conditions, the rule of law and media freedom, alongside rising political polarisation,” the report states.
Serbia’s decline across all parameters
Serbia has regressed in almost all parameters compared to the previous BTI, when it was classified as a defective democracy.
In the political transformation index, it received a score of 5.18 out of a maximum of 10, ranking 61st out of 137 analysed countries, ten places lower than in 2024. In the status index, it fell by nine places to 47th, with a score of 5.98.
It performed worst in the governance index, ranking 96th with a score of 3.96, dropping by as many as 15 places, and best in the economic transformation index, ranking 27th with a score of 6.79, one place higher than in 2024.
The report on Serbia highlights a further decline in the rule of law and media freedom, as well as increased political polarisation.
“President Aleksandar Vučić and the Serbian Progressive Party dominate the political system, effectively controlling the government, parliament and judiciary, despite the fact that the president has a largely ceremonial role under the constitution,” the report states.
Abuse of the electoral process
The report assesses that the regime has intensified electoral manipulation, that parliamentary oversight is weak because it “primarily approves legislation in line with the president’s will”, and that the opposition remains fragmented and under constant pressure.
“The government systematically abuses the electoral process, for example, by dividing local elections into two parts without justification, evidently to enable illegal voter migration – that is, registering voters where they do not reside in order to influence results,” the report states.
It adds that the opposition consists of numerous political parties and movements that are individually weak and forced to unite in electoral coalitions.
“Together, the opposition could pose a serious challenge to the government, as seen in the 2023 elections, but it is marked by ideological differences and a lack of trust among party leaders,” the report assesses.
Systematic harassment
Civil society and independent media face systematic harassment, including smear campaigns, strategic lawsuits and surveillance, the report states, adding that mass protests in 2024-2025 were delegitimised as “foreign-backed destabilisation efforts”.
“The government controls key media regulatory institutions and manipulates the media market in favour of outlets that disseminate aggressive government propaganda,” the report notes.
Economy stable amid high inequality
Regarding economic transformation, the report assesses that, following major external shocks, Serbia’s economy has stabilised, largely thanks to public spending.
Inflation fell sharply by 2024, public debt decreased, and growth continued. However, poverty and inequality remain among the highest in Europe, the state’s role in the economy is significant, and structural social disparities persist.
“Governance remains highly centralised and personalised. Policymaking serves political consolidation, international cooperation is stagnating, EU accession has stalled, and economic ties with China are gaining importance. There is no political will to prosecute corruption, as a culture of impunity prevails in government and public administration,” the report states.
EU integration has not driven democratization
The report also points out that European integration is often seen as a key driver of democratisation, but that this has not materialised in practice.
“Despite significant democratic backsliding, the European Union lacks the political will to exert pressure on Serbia to democratise. European Commission officials praise reform processes in Serbia and respond to political crises with standard statements about the need for reforms,” the report states.
It adds that some EU member states are increasingly willing to prioritise economic and strategic interests at the expense of democracy, citing France as an example, along with agreements related to Belgrade Airport, the metro and the purchase of fighter aircraft.
“If the EU intends to support Serbia’s democratic transformation, it will have to place democracy at the centre of its relations with Belgrade. Although European Commission reports consistently document troubling trends in democracy and the rule of law, these findings are rarely followed by concrete action from EU institutions or member state governments. This gap allows the Serbian authorities to shift responsibility for stalled integration onto the EU and to cite favourable statements from European officials as evidence that democratic standards are being met,” the report emphasises.
Serbia, together with Turkey and El Salvador, is also cited as an example showing that “the promise of authoritarian efficiency is rarely fulfilled” and that the concentration of power, while it may ensure control, often creates new clientelist networks and undermines accountability.
What is the Bertelsmann Index?
In its latest report, the BTI analysed 137 countries over the period from 1 February 2023 to 31 January 2025. The index is published every two years and measures countries’ progress towards constitutional democracy and a socially balanced market economy.
The analysis shows a rise in authoritarian tendencies, erosion of the rule of law, stagnation in socio-economic transformation and governance that is less oriented towards consensus and inclusion.
“Nevertheless, even where democratic standards are under pressure, social resistance to repression, corruption and abuse of power remains remarkably strong. Protests, institutional resistance, civil society engagement and selective reform progress demonstrate that demands for participation, accountability and fair competition have by no means disappeared. Especially in an increasingly fragile international order, this persistence and resistance provide significant potential for renewed reform momentum and democratic renewal,” the report concludes.
(Nedeljnik, 27.03.2026)