The price of Brent crude oil, which is also used as a reference by Serbia, has already reached 90 dollars, and a further rise to as much as 150 dollars is being announced very soon if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened. Amid rising energy prices, the attention of the global public has once again been directed towards the Persian Gulf.
Professor at the Faculty of Economics in Belgrade, Velimir Lukić, assessed in an interview with RTS that the current situation in that region is more serious than previous energy crises.
“The current crisis in the Persian Gulf is unprecedented. If we know that four of the five largest oil fields in the world are located precisely on the edges of the Persian Gulf, then we can conclude that this is a situation we have not seen before,” says Lukić and adds that there have previously been major disruptions on the oil market – from the Yom Kippur War, through the Iranian Revolution, to the Iran–Iraq War and Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait – but that this is the first time we have simultaneous and widespread disruptions in almost all countries of the region.
A large portion of global oil trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which is why any instability in that area carries serious global consequences. According to him, the risk is not only a possible interruption of maritime transport, but also potential attacks on oil facilities involved in the extraction and processing of crude oil.
Price increases are already spilling over to petrol stations
The price of Brent crude oil, which serves as a benchmark for Serbia, reached around 92 dollars per barrel at the close of trading before the weekend. That increase is already being reflected in fuel prices. In Serbia, with state intervention, petrol and diesel prices have risen by three dinars, but Professor Lukić warns that pressure on prices could continue.
“The Minister of Finance will probably have his hands full. It is necessary to make new projections and assess what portion of state levies in the fuel price can be adjusted,” says Lukić. As he explains, one option is the adjustment of excise duties and adds:”Those excise duties can be reduced to a level of up to 20 per cent, with the possibility that regulations could be changed and that percentage increased.”
However, he says that any reduction in tax burdens must take into account the fiscal stability of the state. At the same time, he reminds that Serbia’s investment credit rating allows the state to borrow more easily should a temporary budget deficit occur.
Strategic reserves as the second instrument
According to the interlocutor, states have two key instruments for mitigating energy shocks.
The first is influence on fuel prices through taxes and excise duties, and the second is the use of strategic oil reserves. “The use of strategic reserves carries certain risks, but it can help to alleviate short-term market disruptions,” Lukić explains and goes on to say that Serbia has improved its logistical system for distributing reserves in recent years, partly due to problems with the Petroleum Industry of Serbia (NIS).
War in the Middle East shakes the energy market
Rising tensions in the Middle East have once again triggered turbulence in the global energy market. Energy experts Jelica Putniković, editor of the portal Energija Balkana, and Strahinja Obrenović from the Faculty of Political Sciences spoke about the impact of global developments on the European and domestic markets.
According to Jelica Putniković, the rise in oil prices is currently more a consequence of market reactions than of a real shortage of energy resources. “For now there is no shortage of oil on the market. Every disturbance in the Middle East causes a jump in prices because traders try to profit, but it is too early to speak about extreme scenarios such as 300 dollars per barrel,” she says.
She emphasises that further developments will also depend on the decisions of OPEC member countries, especially those affected by possible transport problems.
Strahinja Obrenović warns that a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would have serious consequences for the global market. “Such a blockade would suit no one, not even Iran.” He recalls that the United States is today in a better position than before thanks to the growth of shale production, as well as strong exports of liquefied natural gas.
(RTS, 07.03.2026)