The question of whether countries like Serbia can become energy self-sufficient by relying exclusively on renewable energy sources is being raised increasingly often in light of the energy crisis.
However, the answer requires a detailed insight into the actual situation – both in terms of current consumption and the realistic potential of renewable sources.
Branimir N. Grgur, a full professor at the Faculty of Technology and Metallurgy at the University of Belgrade, in the Department of Physical Chemistry and Electrochemistry, told Biznis.rs that data for 2024 show Serbia has a total energy balance of 17.86 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe).
Of this, domestic production covers 58.5%, while as much as 41.5% of energy is supplied through imports. This structure clearly indicates significant energy dependence, particularly when it comes to oil and natural gas, most of which are sourced from abroad.
“The mainstay of domestic production remains coal, accounting for more than a third of total energy consumption. At the same time, renewable sources have a significantly smaller, though not negligible, share. Hydropower leads among them, while biomass also plays an important role, primarily in household heating. Wind, solar energy, and biogas still have a modest share, but are showing gradual growth,” Grgur notes.
Looking at electricity generation, Serbia produced around 37.85 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2024. Of this, coal-fired thermal power plants provided nearly two-thirds of production, confirming the energy system’s deep reliance on fossil fuels.
“Hydropower plants accounted for about 28%, while wind and solar together made up only a few percent of total production. After deducting losses and internal consumption, around 31 TWh of electricity was delivered to end users,” our interlocutor says.
Professor Grgur assesses that a similar picture exists in the heat energy sector, where biomass, electricity, and natural gas dominate.
“Most heat is consumed in households, while district heating and industry have a smaller but still significant share. Total combined production of electricity and heat amounts to 8.68 Mtoe, representing an important segment of the overall energy balance,” he believes.
When it comes to renewable energy potential, estimates vary widely depending on the methodology used.
“Theoretical maximums appear encouraging, but realistic estimates, which take into account technical constraints, environmental impacts, and economic factors, are considerably more modest. The total realistically usable renewable potential for electricity generation is estimated at around 31.6 TWh, or approximately 2.9 Mtoe,” Grgur states, adding that the greatest untapped potential still lies in hydropower, wind, and solar energy.
However, these resources are not without limitations. Further development of hydropower capacity raises concerns about ecosystem protection, particularly with regard to smaller watercourses. Wind and solar, on the other hand, depend on weather conditions and require additional investment in system balancing and energy storage.
Biomass represents a specific case – its potential is significant, but difficult to assess precisely due to its various uses, from heating to electricity generation. Geothermal sources, according to available data, remain almost entirely untapped.
“Even in a scenario of maximum utilisation of renewable sources, total additional energy production from these sources would hardly exceed around 3 Mtoe. This is several times less than the country’s total energy needs. At the same time, Serbia will, in the coming period, face the obligation to reduce coal use, both for environmental reasons and due to the introduction of carbon emission charges under European policies,” explains the professor from the Faculty of Technology and Metallurgy at the University of Belgrade.
Under such circumstances, a transition exclusively to renewable energy sources cannot ensure full energy independence.
“Instead, a more realistic scenario involves a combination of different sources, namely increasing the share of renewables, improving energy efficiency, diversifying supply, and developing new technologies such as energy storage or potentially introducing other low-carbon sources. Energy self-sufficiency, therefore, depends not only on available resources but also on how they are used, technological development, and strategic decisions. In Serbia’s case, the figures clearly show that renewable sources play an important, but insufficient role to carry the entire energy system on their own,” concludes Professor Branimir Grgur.
(Biznis.rs, 02.04.2026)
https://biznis.rs/vesti/srbija/koliko-srbija-zaista-moze-bez-upotrebe-fosilnih-goriva/