Following recent reports that surfaced in the media, an old story has once again been revived – that something serious is amiss in the relationship between Aleksandar Vučić and Milorad Dodik.
This time, according to claims by the opposition in Republika Srpska, official Belgrade has reproached the President of RS for making certain decisions without informing Serbia’s leadership. However, this is not the first time tensions have arisen in their relationship, and according to sources speaking to Nova, it is still too early to draw any conclusions.
The leader of the electoral opposition list called Justice and Order, Nebojša Vukanović, stated that official Belgrade is extremely dissatisfied with the decisions of the former President of Republika Srpska (RS), Milorad Dodik, to appoint Ana Trišić Babić as acting entity president and to annul all laws passed in the RS Parliament over the past year and a half, which the Constitutional Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina had previously declared unconstitutional.
“After the ceremonial academy marking the 34th anniversary of the founding of the National Assembly of RS (on 24 October), a sharp exchange took place in Banski Dvor between Milorad Dodik and Miloš Vučević, the president of the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) and envoy of Serbia’s president Aleksandar Vučić,” Vukanović wrote on his blog, nebojsavukanovic.info. He added that Dodik “raised his voice while addressing Vučević, clearly dissatisfied with Vučević’s speech and remarks, as well as Serbia’s reaction to what he viewed as a capitulation.”
“Vučević, though much calmer, did not hold back, making it clear to Dodik what Vučić and Belgrade think about the regime’s actions, especially given that Serbia had not even been informed of what they intended to do,” Vukanović emphasised.
In addition, former Serbian minister Ratko Dmitrović, who is very close to Vučić, wrote on his X account that “Dodik has agreed for Bosnia and Herzegovina to join NATO, and for all property to be registered in the Central Registry and Cadastre of the state of Bosnia and Herzegovina.”
Dodik–Vučić: Trouble in paradise?
Following all this, the focus has returned to the relationship between Milorad Dodik and Aleksandar Vučić, with the question of whether it has truly deteriorated this time or if it is all just another performance.
Amid the political crisis that has been shaking Bosnia and Herzegovina for months, the National Assembly of Republika Srpska appointed Ana Trišić Babić as acting president of the entity, effectively ending Milorad Dodik’s rule. Furthermore, the National Assembly of RS annulled all laws related to unconstitutional activities adopted since 2023, including the one for which Milorad Dodik was sentenced to prison – a case that had previously prompted Belgrade to convene its National Security Council. Just a day before the session, news arrived that the United States had lifted sanctions against four of Dodik’s associates.
Interestingly, the turbulent political upheavals were met with conspicuous silence from the authorities in Belgrade, although some reactions did eventually follow.
Thus, Serbia’s Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandar Vulin stated that the RS National Assembly session was “a defeat.”
“The lifting of personal sanctions against officials of Republika Srpska is not a sufficient gain to justify abandoning the steadfast defence of Republika Srpska’s positions,” Vulin noted.
The analyst and journalist from Banja Luka, Tanja Topić, told Nova that it is striking how, at the beginning of his trial, Dodik was practically in Belgrade once a week, which is no longer the case.
“When the verdict was announced, Aleksandar Vučić flew to Banja Luka that very night. However, a month ago, Vučić made a very telling statement in which he essentially said that ‘the leadership from RS presumably knows what it’s doing’, adding that they would have done things differently. He didn’t go into details at the time,” she said.
Topić points out that Vučić’s reaction was noticeably absent following the RS National Assembly’s decision to appoint an acting president.
“That silence is significant, because Aleksandar Vučić usually comments on everything. Instead, Aleksandar Vulin spoke out, and in a very sharp, critical tone. We also have statements from some opposition leaders claiming that harsh words were exchanged between Milorad Dodik and Miloš Vučević. Therefore, Vučić’s remark that he hadn’t been following developments in RS suggests that certain troubles have arisen in paradise,” Topić said.
Behind-the-scenes deals with the Americans
Diplomat Srećko Đukić, on the other hand, believes that Belgrade and Banja Luka were not in sync regarding what he calls Dodik’s behind-the-scenes deal with the Americans.
“Let’s recall that some time ago Aleksandar Vučić said he would defend the interests of RS and Dodik by all means and that he firmly stands with them – that’s my interpretation of his words – which meant that, in a potential dispute with the West, Vučić would clearly side with Dodik. However, everything happened without Belgrade’s knowledge or oversight. In that sense, Belgrade feels deceived and betrayed, and it’s no wonder there have been no official reactions so far. The few responses we have heard are aimed at letting Dodik know that he has deceived Belgrade, or more precisely, Vučić,” Đukić said.
He believes that much more will eventually come to light, revealing truths that are not yet known.
“What we do know is that in Bosnia and Herzegovina, the process of normalising and harmonising relations and creating a functional state has begun, and that everything will eventually fall within the framework of the state of Bosnia and Herzegovina,” Đukić added.
Đukić also said that Vučić had likely chosen an indirect approach, conveying his stance through Vučević and Vulin.
“This doesn’t mean that he won’t eventually state his position openly, but we can already suspect that he will say it was a game played behind his back,” Đukić concluded.
While debates continue over whether recent developments in RS signal Dodik’s open pivot towards the West – despite long-standing speculation that he already maintained good relations with Western leaders – the former RS president stated that it was important for Republika Srpska to have access to decision-making centres, namely the United States (US) and Russia.
“Our activity continues, and I have more energy now than I did before. We know what we are doing, especially in terms of restoring relations with the US,” he told RTRS.
Trial in November
The main hearing before the Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina against the President of Republika Srpska, Milorad Dodik, is scheduled to begin on Wednesday, 22 November.
Dodik has been charged with failing to respect and implement the decisions of the High Representative, and the prosecution has requested that, if convicted, he be banned from holding political office.
Saša Janković, former Ombudsman and presidential candidate, believes that the High Representative Christian Schmidt amended the criminal law solely to be able to prosecute Dodik, but that this cannot end well.
“I am convinced that by criminally prosecuting and expelling Dodik from institutions, any potential benefit – and that only temporarily – for the unity and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina will quickly be exhausted,” Janković wrote in an opinion piece for Vreme weekly.
“And what will be set in motion instead will be extra-institutional processes with enormous disintegrative and even conflict potential. Because the separatism of Serbs, or at least part of the Serbs in Bosnia and Herzegovina, cannot be equated with Mile Dodik,” Janković stated.
Separatism, Janković wrote, has its roots in real ethnic, regional, and social conflicts and cannot be attributed solely to Dodik.
Even if Dodik’s removal from public office were successful, Janković wrote, “it is very likely that the problems Schmidt aims to solve would only gain new momentum, and that by driving Dodik out of institutions, their spirit would be released from a bottle that they never truly considered their home.”
(Nova.rs, 28.10.2025)
https://nova.rs/vesti/politika/da-li-je-pukla-veza-izmedju-vucica-i-dodika-sada-izgleda-stvarno/