It is very doubtful that Serbian GDP will record a 2% growth this year – says economy expert, Vladimir Gligorov from the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, and adds that Serbia having a free trade agreement with the EU, in the form of the Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA), is the most important thing for Serbia maintaining its economic activity.
“It is likely that the growth will be less than two percent, and maybe not even that much”, Gligorov said in a conversation with Serbian journalists who visited the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies.
According to him, the two percent growth for the entire year, because in order to have it, Serbia wold need to have an almost 4% growth in the last quarter of this year which is unrealistic.
He recalled that the government had even announced a 3.5% growth back in July, but when it realized later on that that would not happen, it revised its forecast to 2%. Gligorov added that even the 2018 growth forecast of 3.5% was unrealistic, and that the IMF would have to downgrade its forecast too.
He also said that Serbia having access to the European market was of extreme importance for the country, and reminded that, since 2010, Serbia had doubled its exports to the EU. On the other hand, Serbia’s export to Russia, despite the Free Trade Agreement in place, has declined.
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