A few months ago, Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić stated that Serbia achieved the highest economic growth rate in Europe in the first quarter, at 3.2 per cent. However, when the data for all European countries was published, it turned out that this was not true.
Ahead of Serbia were Denmark with a growth rate of 5.9 per cent, Malta with 4.5 per cent, Albania with 3.71 per cent, Ireland with 3.7 per cent, and Poland with 3.5 per cent. Serbia was, therefore, only in sixth place.
The President is once again jumping the gun, stating a few days ago that Serbia had the highest growth rate in Europe in the second quarter at 3.6 per cent, as well as recording a 3.4 per cent growth in the first half of the year, which would also put it in first place in Europe.
“The only country that could overtake us is Ireland, but that is due to multinational corporations, not real growth rates,” Vučić said.
However, many European countries have not yet published official data for the second quarter, meaning it cannot be claimed with certainty that the figure announced by the President is correct.
According to Eurostat data, economic growth for the second quarter has so far been published for only 15 countries. Based on these figures, Lithuania currently boasts better economic growth than Serbia, standing at 3.8 per cent – meaning that at least one country is already ahead of Serbia in second-quarter growth.
“Premature celebration of results”
Milojko Arsić, a professor at the Faculty of Economics in Belgrade, says that when it comes to publishing data on Serbia’s economic growth, a pattern of prematurely celebrating results based on short-term and incomplete information is repeating itself.
“This is similar in spirit to what happened in 2020, when Croatia experienced a fairly significant drop in GDP due to the pandemic, as tourism accounts for a large share of its GDP. Their GDP fell significantly at the time, and President Vučić announced that we would overtake Croatia in absolute GDP terms within the next year or two. That has not happened yet,” Arsić points out to Danas.
He notes that back then, the result was presented as an already accomplished success, even though it was merely an expectation that failed to materialise.
“Back then, it was celebrated as an achieved result. This fits into the trend of prematurely celebrating a result based on short-term and incomplete information,” says the professor.
Speaking about the level of economic growth Serbia needs in order to narrow the gap with the European Union, and primarily with Central and Eastern European countries, Arsić states that the key lies in Serbia growing faster than other countries over a sustained period.
“We have reduced the gap compared to developed countries, but we haven’t reduced it relative to Central European nations. The difference has remained similar because they are growing rapidly,” Arsić highlights.
According to him, it is realistic to expect Serbia to achieve long-term economic growth of around four per cent.
“It is difficult for countries in Europe to maintain an average growth rate of five per cent over a long period. In some countries, a five per cent growth rate might be achieved occasionally, but at other times it will be two or three per cent,” Arsić explains.
He points out that high growth rates of six or seven per cent are mostly achieved by Far Eastern and Southeast Asian countries, which have very high investment rates.
“They have investment rates of 35 or 40 per cent. We have significantly lower investment levels, and high growth rates cannot be achieved with low investment,” the professor notes.
As an additional challenge for Serbia in the future, Arsić mentions that the country will likely not see as large an influx of foreign direct investment as in previous years. “If this is not compensated for by other sources of investment, total investment capital will decline. The state is already investing heavily. The only potential sources are domestic private investments, which are stagnating and gradually declining relative to GDP,” Arsić points out.
When asked whether he expects the highest growth in the final quarter of this year due to increased spending following cash handouts to citizens and pensioners ahead of the elections, Arsić says that this factor will indeed influence GDP growth. “The acceleration of works on Expo will also likely have an effect, as construction will probably be sped up to ensure everything is completed on time. Because of this, higher-value works will take place during that period,” he says.
He also adds that, due to the method of accounting for public investments, a portion of work completed earlier might be attributed to that specific period. “That factor will boost growth, but the drought will have a negative impact by reducing output in agriculture as well as in the power supply industry. That effect on economic growth will be significant,” Arsić states.
Nevertheless, taking into account all the positive and negative factors influencing the economy, he expects Serbia to achieve an economic growth rate of around three per cent this year, perhaps slightly higher.
(Danas, 05.08.2026)