In its latest report on Serbia, the credit rating agency Fitch confirmed positive prospects for obtaining an investment-grade rating, while maintaining the country’s credit rating at BB+, according to a statement by the National Bank of Serbia (NBS).
“The agency states that Serbia’s credit rating is supported by an adequate mix of economic policies, including responsible fiscal management, high foreign exchange reserves, and higher gross domestic product per capita compared with countries with the same credit rating,” the statement said.
It is further added that the positive outlook for the credit rating is also influenced by the expected acceleration of economic growth driven by investment, a declining public debt trajectory, and the strengthening of the country’s external position.
Fitch notes that foreign exchange reserves have remained stable despite increased domestic demand for foreign currency towards the end of the year. It also assesses that the coverage of imports of goods and services in terms of months by foreign exchange reserves, as a measure of their adequacy, will remain above the level seen in comparable countries with the same credit rating. It further highlights that currency risk has largely been mitigated by the credible and stabilised exchange rate of the dinar against the euro.
“Despite the fact that geopolitical and trade tensions at the global level remained pronounced in the second half of last year and at the beginning of this year, the credit rating agency Fitch once again confirmed our country’s positive outlook for obtaining an investment-grade rating. This means that we are halfway to achieving investment-grade status according to this rating agency as well. Even in these extremely uncertain circumstances, Serbia has remained on the correct and only possible path of preserving stability, based on the responsible conduct of economic policy over the past decade. This is reflected year after year in the strengthening of macroeconomic fundamentals and the improvement of the living standard of all our citizens,” said NBS Governor Jorgovanka Tabaković.
According to Fitch’s assessment, economic growth in 2025 was slower than expected, reflecting increased uncertainty from the international and domestic environment. In its report, Fitch highlights that the resolution of the NIS issue is expected in a relatively short period, and that short-term risks related to energy supply have been mitigated by secured reserves and activities aimed at diversifying gas supply sources. Fitch also estimates that gross domestic product growth will gradually accelerate to 4.2 per cent in 2027. Growth will be driven, according to the NBS, by the implementation of a large number of investment projects within the “Leap into the Future – Serbia Expo 2027” programme, the recovery of private sector investment, and strong private consumption.
“In its report, Fitch states that inflation has slowed and, since September 2025, has been moving at a level below 3 per cent, as a result of the application of the regulation limiting margins in retail and wholesale trade. In the coming period, Fitch expects inflation to remain within the target range of the National Bank of Serbia,” the NBS statement said.
In addition, Fitch concludes that the share of the budget deficit in gross domestic product in 2025 was lower than the median of countries with a similar rating, and that the share of public debt in gross domestic product continued to decline, to below 45 per cent in 2025, “significantly below the median for countries with the same and even higher credit ratings”. During 2026 and 2027, Fitch also expects the authorities to remain committed to respecting the fiscal deficit limit of up to 3 per cent of gross domestic product. Such trends should ensure the continued downward trajectory of public debt as a share of gross domestic product, keeping it significantly below the average of countries with the same credit rating, the statement said.
“The fact that Fitch also assesses that inflation will remain within the target range of the National Bank of Serbia, as well as that foreign exchange reserves, measured by internationally developed adequacy indicators, will remain above the level of countries with the same credit rating, is an indicator of confidence in the measures of the National Bank of Serbia as well,” Tabaković concluded.
Fitch stated that reduced domestic political uncertainty also contributed to the maintenance of the credit rating.
“Student protests that began after the infrastructure accident in Novi Sad in November 2024 continued throughout 2025, but eased significantly in the second half of the year. Presidential elections are planned for spring 2027, and parliamentary elections by the end of 2027, but recent statements by President Vučić suggest that elections could be held earlier. The government remains committed to cautious macroeconomic and fiscal policy, but domestic political factors and the electoral cycle may lead to additional fiscal loosening,” the report said.
(Biznis i Finansije, 24.01.2026)
https://bif.rs/2026/01/fitch-potvrdio-kreditni-rejting-srbije-na-nivou-bb/