Financial sector and NBS disagree on projected inflation in 2024

According to an Ipsos survey, the Serbian financial sector expects year-on-year inflation to be 5.7% in November 2024, which is a decline for a third consecutive month, since expectations from the previous, October survey stood at 5.9%, the National Bank of Serbia (NBS) said.

“Judging by the Bloomberg survey from December, financial sector expectations are on a downward path – anticipated one-year ahead inflation is 4.5%, i.e. it has entered the NBS target tolerance band for the first time since April 2022.

Short-term (one-year ahead) corporate expectations declined from 9.0  in October to 7.0% in November, which is the lowest level of inflation expectations this year,” the central bank said in a statement.

“Two- and three-year ahead inflation expectations of both financial and corporate sector are lower than short-term expectations. In November, two-year ahead expectations of the financial sector were slightly higher than in October, measuring 4.2% (vs. 4.0% in October), while three-year ahead expectations stand at 3.5% (vs. 3.0% in October), meaning that medium-term inflation expectations for both periods continued to move within the NBS target tolerance band.

This signals monetary policy credibility and efficiency of the monetary policy transmission mechanism through the expectations channel. Medium-term corporate expectations stayed unchanged from the October survey at 6.0% for two years ahead and 5.0 % for three years ahead,” it also said.

(Blic, 20.12.2023)

https://www.blic.rs/biznis/nbs-ocekuje-se-pad-inflacije-u-narednih-godinu-dana/tc7x3jx

 

This post is also available in: Italiano

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