The state’s investment in the EXPO project will total €2 billion, while almost twice that amount could return to the state budget through tax revenues – €3.82 billion.
This means that for every dinar (euro) invested, the state would receive 1.91 dinars, recovering its initial investment and “earning” almost the same amount again. This is the direct effect the project could have on state coffers.
Realistic or not?
These are figures provided to the authorities by consulting firm Luis Berger in the recently completed Study on the Economic, Social and Environmental Impact Assessment of EXPO 2027. Forbes Serbia had exclusive access to the most important data from the document, which is expected to be presented to the public soon. However, it is important to understand that these are projections, and it will be much clearer how close the state comes to these figures – and how realistic the estimate actually is – once the period covered by the study has elapsed.
It should therefore also be borne in mind that the study did not consider only the period from the start of preparations for EXPO in 2023 to the end of the event itself in August 2027. The impact projection also includes the 10-year period following the end of the event, through 2037, which is considered a standard and relevant timeframe for assessing the effects of projects of this type.
Private investment and the effect on society as a whole
The study estimates that the state’s €2 billion investment in EXPO will also attract roughly the same amount in private investment – more precisely, €1.83 billion. (A smaller portion – around €500 million – will be invested by private companies before EXPO, while the remaining €1.3 billion will be invested after the event.)
According to the study’s calculations, these €3.8 billion in combined investment will generate, through direct, indirect and induced effects, so-called added value for the Serbian economy amounting to €9.1 billion by 2037.
How is this figure reached? Direct effects come, for example, from investment in the construction of the complex through payments to contractors. This category also includes spending on maintaining the complex throughout its operation. It also includes tourist spending during visits to EXPO and afterwards, when the future complex operates as a trade fair venue.
Indirect effects would come through payments to suppliers for construction materials (cement, reinforcing steel, etc.), as well as through the engagement of companies that will provide services to the EXPO complex for years after the event (security, cleaning, etc.). They would also result from investments by private companies, such as hotels and other businesses, in the services they provide or the products they sell that will be used by visitors to the complex.
Finally, so-called induced effects would result, for example, from workers’ spending out of the salaries they receive while working on the construction of the complex, from the spending of employees who will work at the future trade fair, as well as from everyone working in shops, restaurants and other facilities that tourists will visit through 2037 because of their trips to the fair or attractions in the surrounding area.
When the €3.8 billion in tax revenues for the state is subtracted from the €9.1 billion in new value generated, the result is that for citizens and the economy, or society as a whole, the project is expected to generate €5.3 billion by 2037.
Investments
According to the study, capital investment in the EXPO complex itself (halls, the national pavilion and other buildings) will amount to €1.23 billion. An additional €775 million will be invested in supporting infrastructure (roads, railway, water supply, sewage systems, energy infrastructure…).
The National Football Stadium, which is formally not part of the EXPO event, is excluded from this calculation.
In addition, the study assumes that the €1.83 billion in private investment will come from EXPO participants investing in their own pavilions, as well as from private companies investing in hotels and other commercial facilities.
After EXPO, the study notes, Serbia will be left with a new Belgrade Fair complex, a shopping centre, residential and commercial space, and amusement parks on the site.
The biggest effect will come after EXPO
As expected, of the previously mentioned €9 billion in added value for the Serbian economy, the largest share will be generated during the 10-year period following EXPO, through the use of the complex – €5.43 billion. The period before the event will generate €2.5 billion, while the event itself will generate €1.13 billion in added value.
The same applies to tax revenues. The largest share – €2.33 billion of the total €3.8 billion – will flow into the state budget between 2028 and 2037. Tax revenues before EXPO will amount to €823 million, while another €671 million will be generated during EXPO, bringing the combined total to around €1.5 billion.
Capital investment in the project will generate the largest amount of value – €4.04 billion – while tourism is also expected to have a major impact, worth €3.22 billion.
On the other hand, tax revenues from tourism will be higher than those generated by capital investment: €1.79 billion compared with €1.27 billion.
Taken together, for every dinar invested before EXPO, the state will get 0.41 dinars back. During EXPO, that figure will be 0.74 dinars, meaning that the state will be “in the red”, but the subsequent operation of the complex in Surčin will change the picture, bringing the return to the aforementioned 1.91 dinars for every dinar invested.
How many foreign tourists are expected and how much will they spend?
Given the importance of tourism revenues, the study devotes particular attention to this area. The projection is that during the three months of EXPO (from May to August 2027), 1.65 million foreign visitors will arrive.
Around one-third of them (almost 522,000) will be day visitors. On average, they will spend €103 at EXPO. A larger group – 1.13 million people – will stay in Serbia for an average of three and a half days. Among them, so-called ordinary tourists will spend an average of €137 per day, while business tourists will spend almost three times as much each day – €468, according to the study’s projections.
The smallest group will be EXPO delegates, numbering 3,215. They will spend an average of €250 per day and will stay in Serbia for an average of 151 days.
After EXPO, through 2037, the trade fair complex is expected to attract another 2.3 million foreign visitors. They are expected to come for various events that will be organized at the site, as well as for the amusement parks that will be located nearby.
What if things don’t go as expected?
Studies of this kind, in addition to a baseline projection, also develop positive and negative scenarios. In this case, the possibility of fewer foreign tourists arriving than projected was taken into account (by 20% to 30%). It was also assumed that their spending could be lower or higher (by up to 10%).
In the scenario where the expected number of tourists arrives and they spend 10% more than projected, the added value for the Serbian economy would increase from €9.1 billion to €9.38 billion. On the other hand, if they spent 10% less, the benefit would fall to €8.74 billion.
In the worst-case scenario – with 30% fewer foreign tourists arriving than planned and their spending 10% lower – gross added value for the Serbian economy would fall from €9.1 billion to €7.87 billion.
Finally, state tax revenues would change accordingly. In the most favorable scenario (the expected number of foreign tourists arriving and their spending increasing by 10%), the state would collect a round €4 billion, while in the worst-case outcome, tax revenues from EXPO would fall to €3.16 billion.
Source: Forbes, 20.08.2026