Europe is entering one of the most tense tourist seasons in recent years, as problems are converging on several fronts – from rising jet fuel and airline ticket prices, fuel shortages, and the risk of flight cancellations. The situation is being further complicated by the new European Entry/Exit System (EES) for the Schengen Area, which is causing delays and congestion at border crossings.
The global crisis, fuelled by the war in the Middle East and disruptions in oil supplies, is already seriously altering travellers’ plans around the world.
Airline ticket prices are expected to remain high, while airline profits are under pressure.
Disruptions in fuel deliveries from Persian Gulf countries through the Strait of Hormuz are increasing costs and raising the risk of shortages just before the start of the tourist season. The price of kerosene has more than doubled, while fuel accounts for up to 40 per cent of the price of an airline ticket.
The European Union itself does not produce enough aviation fuel to meet domestic demand, and its refining capacity can cover only around 70 per cent of airlines’ needs. Any prolonged disruption to tanker traffic through the strait could leave airlines in serious difficulty.
“Europe has reduced its oil refining capacity in recent years and is becoming increasingly dependent on imports, which makes it vulnerable to global crises,” said energy expert Thierry Bros.
“The situation is already serious”
The European Commissioner for Energy, Dan Jørgensen, recently warned that the situation is already very serious and that many citizens may have to change their holiday plans.
“Unfortunately, it is very likely that many holidays will be affected, either by flight cancellations or by very, very expensive tickets. Even if we do everything we can, if there is no jet fuel, then there simply is no jet fuel,” he told Sky News.
According to him, the issue is currently primarily a price crisis, but there is a real danger that it could turn into a supply crisis. The International Energy Agency has already warned that serious supply problems could emerge within the next five to six weeks. Even if the conflict subsides quickly, the consequences will be felt for a long time. “Even if peace came tomorrow and the Strait of Hormuz were reopened, I think we would avoid the worst, but even in the best-case scenario the price crisis will continue for some time,” Jørgensen said.
Major carriers are already attempting to soften the impact. Estimates show that global capacity was reduced by around two per cent in May alone, meaning thousands fewer flights than originally planned. According to the aviation analytics company Cirium, two million airline seats were removed from global flight schedules in May as airlines reduced capacity, while around 13,000 fewer flights were scheduled worldwide during the month.
Flight cancellations due to kerosene prices
The biggest impact is expected among low-cost airlines, which operate on narrow profit margins and are therefore already being forced to increase prices and cancel less profitable routes. As a result, the low-cost airline Transavia announced its first flight cancellations for May and June this week, citing the sharp rise in kerosene prices, the newspaper Kapital reported.
Transavia thus became the latest airline, following Ryanair and Volotea, to announce the cancellation of part of its European flights in May and June.
Germany’s Lufthansa, on the other hand, has already announced ticket price increases, a reduction in flights, and route optimisation. The airline has also announced the cancellation of as many as 20,000 short-haul flights during the summer, explaining that many routes have become “unprofitable” because of the sharp rise in fuel prices.
Nevertheless, despite the dramatic headlines, this does not mean that summer holidays in Europe are cancelled. What is changing is the price and reliability of travel, meaning passengers can expect more expensive tickets, fewer departures, and a greater likelihood of last-minute changes. For precisely this reason, authorities in European countries have already begun urging travellers to secure their tickets as soon as possible in order not to miss out on their holidays.
Spain’s Minister of Industry and Tourism, Jordi Hereu, urged tourists to buy airline tickets as soon as possible in order to avoid the risk of price increases caused by rising oil prices. Hereu told the Spanish newspaper Expansión that, after a record 97 million tourists visited Spain last year, the country could maintain a similar pace of growth this year, but that higher fuel costs threaten to increase airline ticket prices and affect tourist arrivals, according to Reuters.
“What we recommend is that people buy tickets now because it is true that airlines are currently using kerosene purchased some time ago, and therefore there is an element of price fluctuation. It is already clear that prices have risen and this could affect demand,” the minister said.
The EES system and travel
However, this summer fuel is not the only issue facing travellers from Serbia. At numerous European airports, queues lasting several hours have already been recorded, especially during the intensified summer traffic and the introduction of the new EES system. Long waits at passport control are leading to missed flights and disrupted connections, while additional problems have arisen because of technical difficulties with biometric systems and shortages of staff needed to process the increased number of passengers.
Airport authorities and tourism operators warn that the system has already caused operational congestion in its first months that had not been fully anticipated. Because of such congestion, some Schengen countries are introducing more flexible rules in order to ease pressure at borders and airports, raising questions about possible adjustments to or delays in implementing the system that has only recently come into force.
For Serbian citizens, however, positive news has arrived from Greece. From 1 June to 30 August, the EES system is expected to be partially adapted for Serbian citizens, with implementation during night-time hours and without significant impact on queues, Serbia’s Consul General in Thessaloniki, Jelena Vujić Obradović, confirmed to Prva TV.
Obradović stated that Greece will most likely not officially suspend the new EU entry system for Serbian citizens, but that a pause in its implementation is expected during the summer in order to avoid major border congestion. Greece has already suspended the implementation of the EES system for tourists arriving from the United Kingdom.
Experts expect that other southern Schengen members, such as Italy and Portugal, may adopt a similar approach in order to ease pressure during the peak tourist season. Previously, several countries decided temporarily to soften or pause the implementation of the new biometric procedures. Switzerland is the latest to suspend the new controls for British travellers, while Germany and France have introduced more flexible or partially suspended regimes at border crossings, and Spain and Italy have eased measures at airports experiencing the highest passenger pressure.
In an effort to reduce congestion and speed up border procedures, the European Union is simultaneously developing the mobile application “Travel to Europe”, which is intended to form part of the broader plan for the digitalisation of entry into the Schengen Area because of the EES system and the new European Travel Information and Authorisation System (ETIAS). The application allows travellers to enter passport data, photographs, and basic information in advance, after which they receive an electronic approval code intended to reduce waiting times at the border.
Although it is currently available only in Sweden and Portugal, the plan is to expand it to other EU countries, including Greece, Spain, and France, particularly ahead of the summer season when pressure at borders is at its highest.
(NIN, 07.05.2026)