The European Central Bank will decide on Thursday on the further course of monetary policy, and according to the statements of the ECB President Christine Lagarde, a new increase in benchmark interest rates is expected.
Economists and analysts also estimate that interest rates will rise at least for some time, until inflation approaches the target, i.e. the two percent level.
The situation is similar with the American central bank – the Federal Reserve, which has its meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday. US experts forecast that the Fed will raise interest rates by another 25 basis points, and most economists expect that this could be the last increase in this cycle of monetary policy tightening.
Banking clients in Serbia are still more interested in the decision from Frankfurt, since further steps by the European Central Bank will directly affect the fluctuations of Euribor, which is part of the variable interest rate of most long-term loans, mainly housing ones. The end of June was the last date when banks recalculated new monthly instalments, both for loans with a three-month Euribor and for those with a six-month one.
Specifically, the three-month Euribor on June 30 of this year was 3.577 percent, which is half a percent higher than the previous accounting period on March 31 (3.038 percent). The six-month Euribor is at 3.9 percent, which is 1.2 percentage points more than at the end of last year, when the loan installments were last calculated (2.693 percent).
In the previous year and a half, monthly loan instalments grew from 10 to more than 100 euros. Bankers remind us that each calculation depends on the specific loan.
Of the five largest banks in Serbia, three banks tie their variable interest rates to the three-month Euribor, and the other two to the six-month rate. This means that loan instalments are adjusted on March 31, June 30, September 30 and December 31 (in the first case), or June 30 and December 31 (in the second case).
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