The new expansion model for the European Union (EU), expected to be unveiled in mid-October, brings seismic shifts for candidate countries. For Serbia, ‘gradual integration’ and a reduction in the veto power of states such as Croatia and Bulgaria could prove to be a fast-track ticket into the European system, analysts note.
Hints of the European Commission’s (EC) proposal were given in Zagreb by the European Commissioner for Enlargement, Marta Kos, who emphasised that the world has changed, and the enlargement process must adapt accordingly. According to her, the EU faces a new ‘Helsinki moment’ – referring to the gathering of European leaders in the Finnish capital that paved the way for the post-Cold War ‘Big Bang’ expansion when 10 new countries joined the bloc. She announced that the EC will present its ideas on how the EU must prepare as candidate countries approach the end of accession negotiations.
The proposal rests on four key pillars:
- Gradual integration: Abandoning the ‘all or nothing’ principle. Candidate countries should experience tangible benefits prior to full membership (such as joining the SEPA payment system or connecting to the energy grid).
- Stricter candidate scrutiny: Introducing robust mechanisms to safeguard democracy and the rule of law to prevent backsliding by new members and block potential ‘Trojan horses’.
- Faster EU decision-making: To enable an EU of over 30 members to function efficiently, a reduction in areas where a single state can exercise a veto is proposed, implemented without lengthy formal treaty changes.
- Protecting EU interests: Brussels must carefully analyse how admitting new members will impact existing states and safeguard itself against potential risks.
‘Positive if veto options are reduced’
Discussing the concept, political scientist Miloš Pavković told Blic that the proposal the European Commission is drafting will be presented on 15 October, continuing work on the gradual accession model. He specified that the plan focuses on stronger political management of the process through:
- Reducing veto capabilities.
- Intensifying early integration alongside access to EU institutions and programmes during the process itself.
“It would potentially be positive for Serbia if veto options were reduced at every stage,” he noted. “However, the same proposal brings an even greater focus on the rule of law and democracy into sharp relief through protective clauses. These are precisely the areas where Serbia performs poorest, which currently stalls the accession process.”
He added that while the new methodology offers candidate states greater scope for gradual integration, it could equally become a stumbling block for Serbia if reform in the rule of law and democratic institution functioning is not accelerated to yield clear results.
His colleague Strahinja Subotić told Blic that the EU is clearly working along two tracks:
- Restricting veto rights for new member states.
- Reforming the EU internally to reduce the number of areas requiring unanimity.
Vučić addresses the new methodology
Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić also commented on potential internal EU shifts:
“If I were cynical and somewhat rude, I would say that Marta Kos would prefer to see sheep rather than horses, but I am not, so I won’t say that. Let them do their job and protect themselves. They don’t need Trojan horses or any other kind – they don’t need anything. They are sufficient unto themselves,” Vučić stated during a visit to the Rasina District.
Enlargement has long been on the agenda, with several EU countries – notably France and Germany – suggesting the bloc rethink its enlargement methodology, particularly through ‘gradual integration’ offering early tangible benefits to candidate nations.
Veto powers remain a crucial factor, with fears in Serbia that Croatia and Bulgaria could lead objections. Zagreb has repeatedly indicated it will set conditions before granting Belgrade the green light for EU membership, with key disputes including:
- Border demarcation along the Danube.
- The issue of missing persons.
- Demands for war reparations.
Regarding Bulgaria, concerns have already been raised over Belgrade’s treatment of the Bulgarian minority within Serbia.
(Blic, 27.08.2026)