Economic consequences of post-election crisis

Not even three days after the polls closed, political tensions have still not calmed down. In such a boiling hot political ‘kitchen’, a rule of thumb is that the country’s economy is bound to suffer.

While the economist Saša Đogović believes that we are already in a post-election crisis, the length of which will dictate the consequences for the economy, the honorary president of the Union of Employers, Nebojša Atanacković, says that the business world expects the same from every government – listening more intently to the needs of domestic companies but also a competent person to head the Ministry of Economy.

Đogović is convinced that there will be a long wait until the next government is formed, as well as local ones, which means that the country’s non-commercial risk will also increase during that period.

“This means that a long post-election crisis could lead to a decrease in the country’s credit rating, as well as an increase in the cost of borrowing for budget purposes. We are entering a period of political and economic uncertainty, which is eroding macroeconomic stability, so I believe that the National Bank of Serbia will watch out for the signals from the domestic market in order to prevent more significant fluctuations in the exchange rate,” says Saša Đogović.

He adds that the government, even when it is formed, will not change its political character, nor the economic policies it has pursued so far.

“I believe that there will be less indiscriminate one-time payments from the state budget and less of so-called ‘helicopter money’ since no other elections are expected to be called soon”, says Đogović.

Nebojša Atanacković adds that employers expect improvements in several directions from every government, and above all, a better attitude towards domestic companies.

“Incentives for foreign investors exist and that’s fine, but more attention must be paid to domestic companies, who are not taking their profits out of the country,” everything they create in our country,” adds Atanacković.

“We expect that, after several wrong staff choices, the Ministry of Economy, in the government, will be helmed by a strong person who is also a visionary and who will be able to make positive changes. I would also say that this person must come from the ranks of the party that has a decisive influence on the formation of the government – the Serbian Progressives Party (SNS) – and not its coalition partners,” Atanacković says.

Back in June, when speculations were rife about snap elections being called, Biznis.rs investigated the relationship between political events and GDP growth.

“Between 2012 and 2022, Serbia had six years of parliamentary and/or presidential elections and local elections and five years without elections. The data show that the average economic growth rate in years where no elections were held was almost six times higher than in those when there were held – 4.21 percent vs 0.75 percent of GDP,” said Dušan Vasiljević from NALED.

(Biznis.rs, 20.12.2023)

https://biznis.rs/vesti/srbija/ozbiljne-ekonomske-posledice-produzene-postizborne-krize/

This post is also available in: Italiano

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