Early estimates of Serbian GDP at -6.5%

The real decline in Serbia’s gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter of this year is 6.5%, according to a quick estimate by the State Statistical Office (RZS).

The flash estimate shows the real decline in Serbia’s GDP in the second quarter of 2020, compared to the same period last year, was 6.5%.

As pointed out in the announcement, the calculation of quarterly GDP for the second quarter of 2020, more detailed and done at lower levels of aggregation, will be published in the quarterly GDP announcement in on August 31.

This figure, which represents the smallest GDP drop in Europe after Lithuania, does not mean much because it is “typical for poor countries,” says Goran Radosavljevic, professor at the FEFA Faculty in Belgrade.

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“There are at least a dozen more underdeveloped countries in the world that have a smaller decline than Serbia; Belarus, for example, officially recorded economic growth in the first half of 2020,” Radosavljevic told the Beta news agency.

The lower decline in Serbia’s GDP compared to other European countries is not, as he said, the result of a good economic policy implemented by the state, but depends on the structure of the economy, which is based on sectors that have not suffered a major decline due to the pandemic.

Serbian Prime Minister Ana Brnabic said last Sunday that the second quarter ended with a 6.5% drop in GDP, although it was expected to be much higher, -15.4%. She went on to say that in June there was a slight growth of 0.1% and that Serbia was the second-fastest growing economy in Europe in the second quarter, just after Lithuania.

However, Radosavljevic said that representatives of government authorities, by publishing information before it is announced by the institutions responsible for this type of analysis, “delegitimize the institutions”.

Judging from the published data on industrial production, economic growth is driven by the food, chemical and crude oil industry, with the latter one working at reduced capacity last year due to overhaul.

However, the observation of a short series of data, according to Radosavljevic, doesn’t say much about the economy of a country.

(Bizlife, 03.08.2020)


This post is also available in: Italiano

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