The annual gathering of world leaders in Davos will bring, in addition to political debates, also debates on the biggest economic challenges of today such as economic growth, creating new jobs, the use of artificial intelligence for the benefit of all, as well as the achievement of climate goals.
“Rebuilding trust” is the symbolic slogan of this year’s meeting which will also focus on deglobalization, but also on the rebuilding of broken supply chains, as well as the interest rate policy of key central banks, says the president of the Association of Economists of Serbia, Aleksandar Vlahović.
This year, the World Economic Forum will host more than 1,600 business leaders, including about 800 directors and chairmen of the most important global companies and institutions, including the heads of the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and the World Trade Organization.
Vlahović expects that the continuation of the trend of deglobalization will again be among the key topics in Davos, given that we are still witnessing the grouping of supply chains in the sphere of political interests.
Deglobalization is the process of diminishing interdependence and integration between certain units around the world, typically nation-states. It is widely used to describe the periods of history when economic trade and investment between countries decline.
“The United States Federal Reserve will probably start lowering interest rates first, followed by the European Central Bank. However, everything will depend on the extent to which the ‘ghost of inflation’ will reappear. Currently, inflationary expectations are a bigger problem than inflation itself,” Vlahović assesses.
When it comes to Serbia, he estimates that the current global economic trends are beneficial for our economy, given that the deglobalization process is expected to continue.
“This gives us and neighbouring countries a chance for an influx of new investments, which are a consequence of the withdrawal of capital from distant destinations,” Vlahović points out.
According to him, the supply chains of European companies will be grouped in Europe.
Vlahović reminds that for years Serbia has received substantial foreign investment ranging between six and seven percent of GDP, including the year of the pandemic outbreak.
“It is not the best result relatively speaking. Montenegro and Albania have a higher share of investments in the gross domestic product, but in terms of value, more than half of the total foreign investments in the region ended up in Serbia. On the other hand, Serbia has had modest growth rates compared to the robust growth rates needed to catch up to Central and Eastern Europe,” explains Vlahović.
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