At the end of last week, Belgrade became the centre of global economic thought as it hosted the 21st World Congress of Economists, gathering around 1,000 experts from 80 countries, including three Nobel laureates.
Speaking as a guest on Radio Belgrade 1, Jasna Atanasijević, a professor of economics at the Faculty of Sciences in Novi Sad and a board member of the Serbian Association of Economists, analysed the key messages from this historic gathering and explained why Serbia must urgently change its economic growth model.
A clash of visions: Globalism vs nationalism
The main themes of the congress concerned the future of the world order, and the message from Serbia’s state leadership at the opening ceremony was clear: we must adapt faster, as the assumptions that have shaped the global economy over the last 30 years are falling apart.
Professor Atanasijević explained that the world’s leading minds analysed these very contradictions through the prism of geopolitical shifts.
“What the economists discussed is best summarised by the title of the event itself – opposing visions of the world: globalism versus nationalism, multilateralism versus bilateralism, and democracy versus autocracy. New political shifts in the geopolitical sphere are undoubtedly reflecting on the economy through supply chain disruptions and energy risks,” Atanasijević said.
When asked about the economists’ stance on Sino-American relations and whether globalisation is coming to an end, the professor pointed out that while views differ, a slowdown has been evident since the great financial crisis of 2008. “Leading thinkers, such as Dani Rodrik, believe that globalisation cannot be fully reversed because the world is deeply interconnected via supply chains. However, de facto, trade in goods will become less significant for economic development. Manufacturing jobs will lose their edge in international competitiveness, while services will play an increasingly vital role,” Atanasijević noted.
Artificial intelligence and climate levies
Alongside geopolitics, two major topics dominated the discussions: the technological boom and the green transition. The surge of artificial intelligence brings new challenges that economies must prepare for urgently. “AI technology will reshape the labour market, the role of work in the production process, and the skills and competencies required in the future. On the other hand, it demands significantly more energy and massive investments in data centres. In parallel, we have climate change, which is also being used as a baseline for new trade policies, such as the carbon tax and cross-border border carbon adjustments, which we are already feeling,” Atanasijević stated.
Where Serbia stands: Consumption and roads drive GDP, but the private sector weakens
Although Serbia is recording solid growth rates, projected between 2.5% and 3% for this year, its economic structure is changing significantly. While private investment and exports were the primary engines of development a few years ago, today’s growth relies heavily on consumption and the state.
Wage increases in the public sector and pension hikes, combined with a tight domestic labour market where employers must raise salaries because workers are hard to find, are directly fueling consumption. The second pillar of growth consists of massive state infrastructure projects. “The growth being achieved is largely driven by rising consumption on one hand, and the intensive execution of public capital projects on the other. You can see roads and bridges being built everywhere. That is necessary, but if it happens alongside a loss of competitiveness and a lack of private investment, it can become a problem. It would be wise to have a plan for the private sector in place right now,” Atanasijević warned.
The traditional IT sector is becoming a victim of artificial intelligence
For Serbia to secure long-term stability and create higher-value industries, a well-thought-out industrial policy aligned with global trends is vital. This requires an immediate transformation of our strongest assets, such as the IT sector. “We focused on information technologies, and that materialised for us from 2015 onwards through a massive boom in the IT sector, built on the foundations of our engineering education. However, the traditional IT sector globally is slowly becoming a victim of artificial intelligence, which is replacing programmers. We must think about how to redirect the creative segment of this large pool of people to develop new products based on the competencies we already possess,” Atanasijević said.
Rethinking the growth model: Specialisation and legal certainty
Serbia currently invests less than 1% of its GDP into research and development, while the European Union average sits at around 2% – which, according to experts, is also insufficient. Professor Atanasijević noted that a small economy must rely on itself and specialise where it has comparative advantages: in food, machinery, IT, and creative industries. “If we create things with low added value, if we just extract raw minerals and export them, or if we just manufacture tyres, we cannot live as well and prosperously as we would by selling knowledge. Perhaps we shouldn’t rely solely on domestic capacities, but strategically bring in partners who can help us develop products based on new technologies. Alongside knowledge, business conditions and a legal framework that provides security are crucial. Without the freedom to think, communicate, and develop and protect ideas, there is no creativity in an economy,” Atanasijević asserted.
The paradox of the financial system: Record bank profits and a flight to real estate
As one of the core structural issues hindering the development of an innovative domestic economy and startups, the professor pointed to the underdevelopment of the financial system as a whole, despite the stability of the banking sector. “The banking sector is highly regulated and has been generating record profits for a couple of years now, but other segments of the financial system practically do not exist. We don’t have a financial market and we have nowhere to invest money, which is why we invest so much in real estate. Keeping money in banks doesn’t pay off due to low interest rates. Due to strict regulation, banks do not take on major risks, making the financing of new startup ideas – from which new value could be created – extremely difficult,” Atanasijević explained.
The importance of economics as a science and moving away from the socialist legacy
Summarising her impressions of the gathering, Professor Atanasijević highlighted the vital role of economic science in strategic decision-making, but also noted that our academic community is still dragging along the remnants of the past.
Modern world economics today relies heavily on hard data, a fact reaffirmed by this congress. “Most of the presentations at the congress were mathematical models. Economics largely uses the language of mathematics to generalised reality, and then uses data to check if that holds true and what the model is telling us. This helps us view reality consistently and critically. The beauty of meetings like this lies precisely in this live exchange of opinions and suggestions on how to improve the models,” Atanasijević said.
How to escape the middle-income trap
As one of the most important takeaways from the congress, the professor highlighted the conclusions from the Asian Development Bank panel, which can be directly applied to planning Serbia’s future. “To position ourselves as a society, we need to think seriously about economic development. This is not something decided from one day to the next, but a matter of collective discussion and planning. At the Asian Development Bank panel, we heard about how some countries escaped the so-called middle-income trap while others did not. The main message is clear – strategy and a clear goal are paramount,” concluded Jasna Atanasijević, professor of economics at the Faculty of Sciences in Novi Sad and a board member of the Serbian Association of Economists.
(RTS, 01.07.2026)