The rumour surrounding the large number of people over the age of 100 registered on the electoral roll has shown no signs of fading in recent days. The reason lies in a bizarre inconsistency according to which, in just four years, that figure increased dramatically by more than 1,100 people, even though, by comparison, Serbia gained only 24 new centenarians over the entire decade between 2011 and 2022.
Namely, according to data from 2022, the number of people over the age of 100 stood at 194, while this year, according to figures presented by the Minister of Public Administration and Local Self-Government, Snežana Paunović, that number has seen a sharp rise to 1,343 people.
How is this possible? According to Statistics Professor Dragan Vukmirović, at first glance, the discrepancy between the number of centenarians according to population censuses and the electoral roll appears highly illogical. However, he explains that there are several statistical and administrative explanations that may contribute to such a situation.
First and foremost, says the professor, it is important to understand that the population census and the electoral roll are not methodologically comparable sources of data.
“The census represents a ‘snapshot in time’ taken at a specific moment (usually every ten years) and is based on the actual presence of the population, whereas the electoral roll is an administrative database that is continuously updated and depends on several registers (civil registries, records of residence and citizenship, maintained by different state authorities). Precisely because of this, the electoral roll is susceptible to delays in updating, particularly in cases involving the deaths of persons abroad or when data are not synchronised between institutions in a timely manner,” Professor Vukmirović explains.
Secondly, he adds, the figure of more than 1,300 people over the age of 100 on the electoral roll does not necessarily mean that these are genuinely living individuals. “It is more likely an indication of the accumulation of outdated records over time. In statistics, there is a well-known phenomenon known as ‘administrative lag’ (data lag), whereby registration systems fall behind actual demographic changes, especially in complex registry systems,” Vukmirović explains.
Thirdly, says the professor, one must take into account the difference between the resident population (covered by the census) and the total number of registered voters, which may also include citizens who do not live in the country, further complicating any direct comparison.
“When all factors are considered, such a jump in the number of centenarians over such a short period is not demographically realistic. It is far more likely to be the result of a combination of outdated data, administrative delays, and methodological differences between the sources,” Professor Vukmirović told Danas.
He stresses that findings of this kind point to the need for improved data exchange between institutions and more regular updating of the electoral roll in order to ensure greater accuracy and strengthen public confidence in official records.
The response from the Statistical Office
“The Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia told Danas that it has repeatedly informed both the public and the media about the methodological differences between the population count in the census and the number of voters on electoral rolls. According to the Office, these are two fundamentally different sets of data because:
– The census deals with the concept of the usual (resident) population;
– The electoral roll includes everyone who has voting rights in Serbia, namely all adult citizens – regardless of whether they are physically present in the country.
‘Put more simply, according to the results of the 2022 Census, our citizens living abroad are not included in the population of the Republic of Serbia. On the other hand, those same citizens are included on the electoral roll because they possess the inalienable right to vote (regardless of whether or not they are present in the country),’ the Statistical Office explains.
Namely, as they point out, according to census methodology and in line with international recommendations (UN, Eurostat, UNECE), persons who have been absent from the country for one year or longer – that is, persons living abroad – are not included in the population count of a given country. Those individuals are counted in the countries where they reside and are included in the usual resident population of those states.
(Danas, 18.05.2026)