The end of the year is usually the time when experts try to forecast what awaits us in the coming period.
Erste Group analysts have published their forecasts of economic trends in 2024 for eight countries in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). The analysis covers Croatia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovenia, Slovakia and Serbia.
Next year, the growth of the global economy is expected to slow down, including China’s, whose growth rate, according to expectations, should decline. But, what should worry the countries of the CEE region is the stagnation of the Eurozone economy and especially the decline of the German economy, which for decades has been perceived as the driving force behind the European economy and is an important trading partner of almost all countries analyzed, including Serbia.
Serbia and Romania with the highest growth
Several factors could positively influence the economic growth of the countries covered by the analysis. First of all, growth in personal consumption is expected. Namely, real wage growth, along with falling inflation, could support the growth of household consumption. On the other hand, the increased cost of living, after the double-digit inflation we’ve had, could slow down that growth.
According to the forecast, Serbia should achieve GDP growth of 3.3 percent next year and 3.6 percent the year after that, while the average of the observed eight countries is 2.5 percent. This is also the highest forecasted growth in the observed region and apart from Serbia, Romania will also record the same growth, while the other CEE countries will have lower growth, namely Hungary with 3.2%, Croatia with 2.4% and the Czech Republic with 1.8%.
As for Serbia’s public debt, the forecast is that it will fall to 51.5% of the national GDP in 2024. In terms of the Czech Republic and Romania, their public debt will amount to 46.3% and 49.7% of the national GDP respectively. In 2025, Serbia will record with a slight drop in public debt to 51.1%, while the Czech and Romanian public debt will stand at 46.3% and 49.5% respectively.
(Biznis i Finansije, 03.12.2023)
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