The war in the Middle East is changing global circumstances day by day, and in addition to the energy crisis and potential collapse, which is being discussed more openly following the sharp rise in oil prices, it is certain that the global travel market will also feel its share of the consequences.
General uncertainty and the insecurity of airspace, disruptions in air traffic, the closure of certain air corridors, and rising fuel costs are all affecting the availability and price of tourist destinations. Travellers from Europe have often reached many attractive destinations via major Middle Eastern hubs such as Dubai International Airport or Hamad International Airport in Doha. Now the situation is entirely different, and the changes, as experts say, are already being felt everywhere, including in Europe.
In conditions of uncertainty, travel becomes more unpredictable and more expensive, so some tourists are beginning to turn to closer and safer destinations. All of this may affect prices. The Mediterranean could therefore become even more sought-after than in previous seasons, and countries such as Greece and Montenegro could experience additional demand pressure during the summer months.
A study by the consulting firm Mabrian shows that the decline in traveller confidence is particularly pronounced in Bahrain, Oman and Qatar. The safety perception index for these destinations has recorded significant drops, while the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia have shown somewhat greater resilience. Even a small decline, experts warn, can shift tourism demand, as safety remains the most important factor when choosing a destination, often more important than price or comfort.
What awaits tourists from Serbia?
The question that arises is how these global disruptions will affect tourists from Serbia: whether the prices of packages and air tickets will rise, whether popular destinations will become more expensive, and whether the upcoming season could be more uncertain than the previous one.
The director of the National Association of Travel Agencies of Serbia (YUTA), Aleksandar Seničić, stated that the conflict in the Middle East is already beginning to affect travel plans worldwide and global tourism, and that Dubai is temporarily ceasing to be a tourist destination. Seničić told Tanjug that travellers are cancelling previously booked trips to Dubai and can either receive refunds or redirect their payments to other destinations.
Regarding Egypt, Seničić said that the situation is not as dramatic as in Dubai, noting that around 1,000 Serbian tourists are currently there and, according to him, are staying completely safely and normally, which is why there is no reason for cancellations.
What should tourists with already paid holidays do?
One of the key questions Serbian tourists are asking is what will happen to their paid packages for destinations such as Egypt or Cyprus. Many of them do not feel safe, and for now agencies are not allowing them to cancel their arrangements without penalties.
Seničić says that tourists may face problems because airlines are still operating flights to Egypt and Cyprus, making refunds for airline tickets quite uncertain.
“At the moment, no state of emergency has been declared there that would allow for smooth refunds, and the same applies to Cyprus,” he added.
When it comes to travelling east, Seničić also advises Serbian citizens who have planned or booked such trips to remain patient, stay in contact with agencies, and not cancel their travel prematurely. He emphasises that a package can always be cancelled if the conflict escalates.
“There is no need to panic. Payments for these distant destinations were mostly tied to ‘first minute’ offers, which are significantly cheaper. If we cancel these trips now, it is to be expected that they will be considerably more expensive later if we still decide to go. We should be patient and bear in mind that this will not last much longer and that the situation will stabilise,” Seničić concluded.
Will holiday prices increase?
However, due to the unstable situation in the Middle East and security risks, some key hubs, such as Dubai, have been temporarily closed or are operating with difficulty. Flights must be rerouted around conflict zones, which lengthens travel time and increases costs, while passengers continue to seek affordable and available tickets. European regulations, such as EU 261 rules, further complicate airline operations, while the transport sector must balance rising costs, labour shortages, and pressure to reduce emissions.
Major European airlines warn that ticket prices will soon rise due to the sharp increase in fuel prices caused by the war in the Middle East. Although carriers previously mitigated costs through hedging contracts, they point out that this protection will not last much longer, so additional costs will be passed on to passengers, according to The Guardian.
Companies operating long-haul flights, such as Air France-KLM and Lufthansa, are already adjusting routes and increasing the number of flights via Asia, as hubs in the Persian Gulf are partially closed or operating at reduced capacity due to the conflict.
EasyJet states that there are currently no issues with fuel supply but advises passengers to purchase tickets early, as prices are expected to rise once existing fuel price contracts expire.
Responding to the question of how the conflict in the Middle East will affect the price of charter flights for the upcoming summer season, Aleksandar Seničić notes that if the war continues at this intensity, it will result in fuel surcharges, as all agencies have contracts for both charter and regular flights that include clauses based on a fixed fuel price.
If fuel prices rise, agencies will have to increase their prices accordingly, he added.
As Seničić stated, due to the conflict in the Middle East, people are increasingly redirecting their travel towards European destinations and cities, while a more stable situation is expected for the summer season, at least in Turkey, Greece, Montenegro and Spain.
He estimates that several destinations will benefit from the current situation by recording a slightly higher number of tourists, including Greece, Bulgaria, Montenegro, Croatia, Spain and Italy.
“These destinations will certainly see a somewhat higher number of tourists not only during the season but also outside it. Whether this will bring good results remains to be seen, as fuel prices have risen significantly and major increases in air transport are expected,” he said.
When asked whether Serbia, as a stable destination, could attract some Western European tourists wishing to avoid proximity to crisis areas, Seničić said that this is possible, as the country has much to offer. In his view, Serbian tourism will likely achieve better results this year than last year, when domestic political circumstances led to a lower number of tourists.
“We will certainly have a higher number of domestic tourists, given that interest in travelling abroad is currently very low, as the situation is psychologically affecting a large number of citizens,” he added.
What is the situation like in Dubai?
The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and the reduced number of flights have led to a drastic drop in hotel occupancy, while the prices of luxury rooms have been halved. Following the limited resumption of flights last week and concerns about travel due to the escalation of the conflict, hotel prices in Dubai are experiencing a sharp decline due to a lack of new bookings.
“Hotel occupancy fell to around 20 per cent last week. The forecast for this week is that it will be in single digits. Unfortunately, it will take time for the situation to recover,” said a hotelier working in a luxury hotel in Dubai.
Another person familiar with the situation said that average daily rates have dropped by 50 per cent compared to the previous week. According to the new offers, luxury rooms are available for around 80 euros at the FIVE Palm Jumeirah resort, whereas they previously cost more than 230 euros.
“February is usually a strong month for hotel business in Dubai, but revenue per available room fell by up to 25 per cent on certain days in the second half of the month compared to last year, resulting in total revenue per available room being three to four per cent lower for the month,” said Manav Thadani, founder and chairman of Hotelivate.
(NIN, 23.03.2026)
https://www.nin.rs/drustvo/vesti/106992/da-li-ce-letovanja-poskupeti-zbog-rata-na-bliskom-istoku